Frances Tiafoe opens his 2026 U.S. Open campaign Monday night at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and waiting across the net is an opponent he knows well: Martin Damm Jr. The two Americans met in the same tournament last year, with Tiafoe emerging in four sets to advance to the Round of 64. That victory continued Tiafoe’s remarkable run of success in New York, a place where he has reached the quarterfinals or better in three consecutive years. But 2025 brought an earlier exit, so the No. 11-ranked Tiafoe is eager to rediscover his best form.
Tiafoe’s pedigree at the U.S. Open is tough to ignore. He owns three quarterfinal appearances and two semifinal trips at Flushing Meadows, compared to just two quarterfinal showings combined at the other Grand Slams. Coming off a strong runner-up finish at the Cincinnati Masters, Tiafoe appears to be rounding into shape at the perfect time. Damm, meanwhile, is making only the fourth Grand Slam appearance of his career. The 22-year-old reached the second round on his U.S. Open debut last year and even stole a set from Tiafoe in their first meeting, but he has limited experience on the biggest stage.
Oddsmakers have installed Tiafoe as a heavy favorite at -382 to advance. That number, while short, is actually a far shorter line than some of his top-ranked peers have received, suggesting the market sees a real upset threat from Damm. The younger American did reach the Round of 16 at the Winston-Salem Open recently, but he also fell in qualifying at the Cincinnati Masters. His overall record in 2026 stands at a modest 9-12 across 21 matches.
For those looking to back Tiafoe without laying the full moneyline price, the set spread offers an alternative. Tiafoe is -175 to win 3-0 or 3-1, a line that accounts for the possibility that Damm might snag a set again. Last year, Damm did exactly that, taking the third set before falling 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 7-5. Still, the 28-year-old Tiafoe’s superior experience and recent form make a straight-sets or four-set victory the most likely outcome. DraftKings Sportsbook lists the set spread at -175, and the prediction here is that Tiafoe covers that number.
