Dow Futures Dip as Rate Cut Odds Fall Ahead of December Meeting

NEW YORK, New York — U.S. stock futures were mixed Monday as investors adjusted their expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in December. Dow Jones futures dropped by 0.06% while S&P 500 futures rose by 0.26%.

The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has decreased significantly, dropping to 44.6% from 62.4% a week prior and 93.7% a month ago, according to data from CME FedWatch.

“The likelihood of a December rate cut continues to decline,” said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. In a recent note, the firm indicated that a pause in December is more likely, with one or two rate cuts anticipated in the first half of 2026.

While Dow futures were falling, tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5% at the same time. The Russell 2000 index futures also saw a slight uptick of 0.06%.

Retail sentiment for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was reported to be in the ‘bullish’ territory, with SPY up by 0.26%, QQQ rising by 0.45%, and DIA increasing by 0.04% early Friday.

Asian markets experienced mixed results on Monday. The Hang Seng index led declines, down 0.8%, followed by the Shanghai Composite and Nikkei 225, which fell by 0.46% and 0.23% respectively. Conversely, the KOSPI rose by 1.9%, while the TWSE Capitalization Weighted Stock index went up by 0.18%.