NFL Week 12 Playoff Probabilities: Chiefs Lead AFC, Lions Dominate NFC

As Week 12 of the 2024 NFL regular season unfolds, teams brace for the critical playoff push, with postseason probabilities adjusting in real time thanks to Next Gen Stats. These probabilities are updated dynamically during live games, offering a pulse on each team’s chances.

The current probabilities, captured on the morning of November 19th, provide insights into the playoff landscape. Notably, the Kansas City Chiefs are in a commanding position with a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 61% probability of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Their performance, particularly at home where they remain undefeated, positions them as front-runners.

In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills, with a 9-2 record, also boast playoff assurance but face a pivotal stretch with challenging opponents like the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams ahead. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored to lead the AFC North, holding a substantial edge over the Baltimore Ravens, according to current projections.

In the NFC, the Detroit Lions emerge as favorites, their strong 9-1 record giving them a 65% chance of capturing the No. 1 seed. The Lions, noted for their historic absence from Super Bowl appearances, are considered top contenders with a 21.2% chance of winning the title, the highest projection among NFC teams.

The Philadelphia Eagles, following a vital victory against the Washington Commanders, are projected to win the NFC East, significantly ahead of their divisional rivals. Despite the close competition in the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals lead, though with less certainty compared to other division leaders.

As teams like the Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings navigate their playoff paths, the postseason picture remains fluid. The Texans, positioned firmly to take the AFC South, enjoy a comfortable lead over the Indianapolis Colts, while the Vikings are expected to secure a Wild Card spot.

Bubble teams are in a tense race, with the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers facing crucial games that might redefine their playoff fates. Meanwhile, teams like the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks remain within reach but require strong finishes to challenge for NFC Wild Card spots.

This week’s playoff projections, informed by detailed statistics and simulations, underline the competitive nature of the NFL season as it heads into its concluding chapters.