ANC Projected to Lose Majority in South African Election

South Africa’s ruling party, the ANC, is facing the possibility of losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid, according to projections from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). The model developed by the CSIR based on early vote tallies suggests that the ANC is likely to secure only 42% of the vote in the recent national election, sparking concerns of forming a coalition government.

If the projections hold true, the ANC may need to collaborate with one of its main rivals, such as the market-friendly Democratic Alliance or one of the populist parties like MKP that advocate for the nationalization of key industries like mines and banks. This potential scenario has unsettled financial markets due to the uncertainty it poses in terms of investment policies and stability.

The weakening rand and falling stock prices in response to the projections indicate the market’s concern over the prospect of an unstable coalition government. The turmoil in financial indicators is reflective of the broader unease surrounding the potential future of governance in South Africa.

The model developed by CSIR, utilizing data from a fraction of voting districts, also points to a general trend seen in pre-election polls that suggested a decline in support for the ANC. Factors contributing to this shift include economic stagnation, high unemployment rates, soaring crime levels, and public dissatisfaction with government service delivery.

Despite these challenges, President Cyril Ramaphosa‘s administration has implemented reforms aimed at addressing critical issues such as energy shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks. The positive outcomes of these efforts are reflected in projected GDP growth rates for the country, signaling a potential economic upturn in the near future.

Sandile Malinga, the group executive of CSIR’s Smart Society, emphasized the margin of error in the model and cautioned that while it is more accurate for major parties like the ANC, smaller entities like MKP may have varying degrees of accuracy. The final tallies from more voting districts are awaited to provide a comprehensive projection for the nine provinces.