Fractures in the Socialist Party Over Cazeneuve’s Potential Nomination

On September 2, President Emmanuel Macron is set to meet with former socialist Bernard Cazeneuve to discuss the nomination of the next Prime Minister. This news has spread concern within the Socialist Party (PS).

Over the weekend, persistent rumors began circulating that Bernard Cazeneuve could be Macron’s top choice for the Prime Minister position, especially as France has been without a government for more than fifty days. This speculation was met with unease among members of the PS.

The prospect of Cazeneuve taking office has exposed deep divisions within the party during its summer university event held near Blois from August 29 to 31, which Eurasia participated in. This annual gathering highlighted significant internal disagreements on how to respond to the potential of one of their own, Cazeneuve, possibly returning to the role of Prime Minister.

In an interview with Le Point, Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of the French socialists in the European Parliament, stated that it was time to move beyond both President Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (LFI).

Cazeneuve’s nomination would effectively end any slim hopes of appointing Lucie Castets, the candidate from the newly formed Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) on the left, who has been a contender since July. Last week, Macron excluded the possibility of partnering with Castets, citing risks associated with surviving a motion of no confidence.

Bernard Cazeneuve has become a contentious figure among a significant segment of the party’s leadership. Previously serving as Prime Minister at the tail end of François Hollande’s mandate, Cazeneuve held multiple ministerial roles under the socialist administration from 2012 to 2017, including the Interior, Budget, and European Affairs.

Critically, he has been a vocal opponent of the left-wing alliance NUPES established in 2022 and the NFP, which amalgamates the PS, the Communist Party (PC), the Greens, and La France Insoumise. This coalition emerged as the dominant force in the July elections but fell short of achieving an absolute majority.

Moreover, Cazeneuve has been criticized by many within the socialist base, who view him as instrumental in the PS’s rightward shift under Hollande, a transition that led to the party’s decline in the 2017 legislative elections.

A source familiar with the negotiations confirmed that Cazeneuve would meet with Macron on September 2, substantiating reports from other media outlets. This scenario places the socialists at a strategic crossroads: they must choose whether to support a Cazeneuve-led government in hopes of influencing its political agenda, thereby distancing themselves from the NFP, or retain their opposition stance, risking allegations of dogmatism and irresponsibility.

While no clear majority has emerged following the legislative elections on July 7, divisions within the Socialist Party are increasingly evident. Olivier Faure, the party’s first secretary, remains committed to the NFP, while some dissenting voices are open to discussions regarding a coalition with Macron’s faction.

The party’s official stance has long been to safeguard the left-wing alliance, yet this position is increasingly questioned. Certain socialist leaders express readiness for negotiations with Cazeneuve, contingent on addressing critical demands, such as repealing the 2023 pension law and increasing the minimum wage.

“It’s not about who becomes Prime Minister but rather what their priorities are,” remarked Aurore Lalucq, an MEP aligned with the S&D group, to Euractiv last week. Lalucq is receptive to discussions with any party, aside from the far-right.

For François Kalfon, another S&D MEP, Cazeneuve’s potential leadership signifies an opportunity to collaborate with the center. “He may not implement 100% of the NFP’s agenda but we can agree on crucial elements,” he asserted.

Bernard Cazeneuve himself expressed optimism about the prospect of a coalition government, suggesting it could function as a cohesive leftist administration.

Reports indicate that Cazeneuve’s nomination is being considered, with support from various PS and center-right members. However, such developments remain unconfirmed.

Kalfon has urged his party to adopt a consensus-driven mindset akin to practices within the European Parliament, extending this approach to national political dynamics.

The NFP has recently emerged as a frontrunner in the anticipated elections held on July 7, aiming to initiate discussions around forming a coalition government while presenting a range of European issues that currently divide the coalition.

Concerns among PS leaders center around the repercussions of supporting Bernard Cazeneuve. They fear such a move could dismantle the NFP, alienate the socialist voter base, and associate them closely with Macron and the right-wing.

“If you wish to govern without the NFP and alongside the right, you will become the right,” Faure warned during the gathering at Blois, refuting claims of internal party divisions.

The present parliamentary arithmetic implies that a coalition government could only survive if the far-right abstains during a vote of no confidence, unless the left opts for censure instead, as emphasized by Faure.

The principal figures of LFI, including Mélenchon, threatened to instigate measures against the President citing what they label as “institutional coup against democracy” in relation to the chosen Prime Minister.