2024 Lok Sabha Exit Polls Prediction: Insights and Analysis

The Lok Sabha elections have reached their climax as the last phase of voting is set to conclude on June 1. Following this, multiple agencies will swiftly commence the release of exit poll results, predicting potential winners and the magnitude of their success.

The Election Commission of India, the ultimate authority, will declare the final results on June 4.

Exit polls are surveys conducted after polling closes, aiming to forecast outcomes before official results are disclosed. Nevertheless, the accuracy of such predictions has been a subject of scrutiny over time.

Regulations dictate that publishing exit poll data is only allowed 30 minutes after the last vote is cast. As per Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, any infringement can result in stringent penalties.

This general election poses a significant challenge to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aiming for an unprecedented third term. In opposition, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) under the Congress party’s leadership is making a bid under the banner of INDIA bloc.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections, for instance, saw various exit polls predicting outcomes differently. Notable agencies such as the India Today Group-Axis My India and News24-Today’s Chanakya presented divergent forecasts.

Years of conducting exit polls have enabled significant improvements in methodologies. According to experts, sample sizes have increased remarkably, enhancing result precision.

The beginning of exit polls in India dates back to 1957 when the National Election Study was held during the second Lok Sabha elections. Over time, the practice evolved, with organizations like CSDS playing vital roles.