Tensions Escalate as Russia Gains Ground in Ukraine; Future US Support Uncertain

In a move that has raised international debate, U.S. President Joe Biden has approved the provision of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine and sanctioned the use of long-range missiles on Russian territory. This development comes amid significant territorial gains by the Russian military in Ukraine. Analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Russia has captured almost six times the amount of territory in 2024 compared to the previous year, as it advances toward critical Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.

Despite Ukraine’s bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region earlier this year, the operation seems to be faltering. Russian forces have reportedly pushed back Kyiv’s attempt, prompting defense analysts to question the strategy behind the offensive given Ukraine’s current manpower constraints. «It seems to be a strategic catastrophe,» remarked Dr. Marina Miron, a defense researcher at Kings College London, speaking to the BBC.

This ongoing conflict is taking place in a period of political transition in the United States. The president-elect, Donald Trump, has expressed a commitment to ending the conflict upon taking office in January, sparking concerns that he might reduce military aid to Ukraine. The war experienced rapid changes at its onset, but by 2023, it had settled into a stalemate. ISW’s recent findings, however, suggest a different narrative for 2024.

According to ISW data, Moscow has recaptured approximately 2,700 square kilometers of Ukraine in the current year, a sharp increase from 465 square kilometers in 2023. Dr. Miron has suggested that the Ukrainian eastern front could potentially «collapse» unless Ukraine manages to stabilize its defense lines.

The Russian advances have been particularly notable in Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and Kurakhove in Donetsk, approaching strategic hubs like Pokrovsk. Verified videos corroborate this analysis, showing Russian armored convoys getting close to key locations before being repulsed by Ukrainian defenses.

Despite these territorial gains, Russia’s military campaign has come at a significant human cost. BBC Russian has recorded at least 78,329 Russian casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, with Moscow’s losses from September to November this year exceeding those in the same period last year by over one-and-a-half times.

Military experts have pointed out that despite the Russian advances, the offensive remains sluggish. David Handelman, a military analyst, noted that Ukrainian forces are making strategic withdrawals to preserve manpower and resources.

Ukraine’s foray into the Kursk region initially created a morale boost amid setbacks, though the operation is now labeled a «strategic catastrophe» as troops are getting tied down, affecting Ukraine’s ability to respond on other fronts. Dr. Miron told the BBC that initially, Ukraine aimed to leverage this move politically, but instead, it allowed Russia to maintain a firmer grip on the region.

With some of Ukraine’s most effective and well-equipped units engaged in Kursk, President Zelensky warned that a potential reduction in U.S. military aid could severely impact Ukraine’s defense capabilities. «We have our production, but it’s not enough to prevail,» Zelensky stated in a Fox News interview.

In the political backdrop, as President-elect Trump prepares to assume office, there is speculation that his administration could alter U.S. policy towards the conflict. Trump’s assertion that he could end the war within a day by reconfiguring strategies remains unsubstantiated. Meanwhile, fears of aid cuts have prompted Ukraine to deploy long-range missiles, possibly to fortify negotiation positions in any future peace talks.