Vikings’ Performance Raises Questions Amidst Strong Season Start

The Minnesota Vikings, currently standing at an impressive 8-2 record, have emerged as formidable contenders in the National Football League (NFL) this season. This marks the second time in three years that the Vikings have reached this record by this point in the season. Despite the changes in key personnel, including a new quarterback and defensive coordinator as well as 14 new starters, a common question resurfaces: How good are they truly?

Historically, the Vikings’ 2022 season culminated with a 13-4 record, yet they suffered from a negative point differential and little predictive success according to advanced metrics such as Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). «There’s just no comparison between those teams,» remarked Aaron Schatz, creator of the DVOA metric. «The 2022 team was close to the strangest year I’ve ever seen. This year is a completely different situation. The Vikings this season are playing like an 8-2 team. There’s no luck involved here. They have played that well.»

The Vikings’ 2024 squad presents improved metrics. Currently fifth in the NFL in point differential at +74, ninth in yard differential at +318, and fourth in DVOA, their victories seem more substantive and the losses less detrimental, positioning them as serious playoff contenders. Despite this, skepticism surrounds their strength of schedule, as half their victories this season have come against the AFC South, the league’s weakest division by win percentage.

Additionally, the Vikings’ defensive capabilities are garnering attention. Their defense ranks best in the league in DVOA adjusted for strength of opponents’ offenses and is tied for first in takeaways. The defensive efforts are especially commendable against a schedule that entails challenging opponents, such as the presence of top-tier quarterbacks.

Despite critiques focusing on the caliber of opponents, the Vikings’ locker room remains undeterred. Safety Harrison Smith articulated a common sentiment among players: «It doesn’t matter what people’s records are. Everybody has Pro Bowlers. Everybody can score in one play. There are no easy [wins]. They all count as one.»

Head Coach Kevin O'Connell expressed satisfaction with the current narrative, particularly following criticism he faced last season. Commenting on the team’s progress, he noted, «I’m old enough to remember when nobody thought we were very good. So the same way that I answered that question, I’ll answer it now. We’ve just got to continue to get better, improve. 8-2 means absolutely nothing.»

There is a sense of potential among the players, such as wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who leads with the NFL’s second-most receiving yards this season. Jefferson remarked that the team has yet to reach their full potential but is poised to become «wonderful» when it does.

This skepticism, however, is common among sports analysts. Experts like Ryan O'Leary point out the victories against less formidable opponents and question the long-term sustainability, particularly with Sam Darnold under center. Nevertheless, the Vikings continue to defy expectations, now focusing on their upcoming match against the Chicago Bears in Week 12, hoping to solidify their standing in the NFC North, closely trailing the Detroit Lions.