Harris Leads Trump in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, But Races Remain Tight: Marist Poll

A recent Marist Poll released on November 1, 2024, indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, although the races remain highly competitive.

In Pennsylvania, Harris is ahead of Trump by 2 points, receiving 50% of the support from likely voters compared to Trump’s 48%. This slight lead is a shift from September when both candidates were tied at 49% each. Harris has made significant gains among independent voters, now leading Trump by 15 points (55% to 40%) in this demographic, surpassing the support President Joe Biden received among independents in 2020.

Among likely voters in Pennsylvania who have already cast their ballots, Harris leads Trump 63% to 35%. However, Trump maintains a majority support among those who have yet to vote, with 54% to Harris’ 44%. The gender gap has narrowed, with Harris leading Trump by 8 points among women and Trump edging Harris by 4 points among men.

In Wisconsin, Harris also holds a slim lead, with 50% of likely voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 48%. Similar to Pennsylvania, Harris performs well among independents, leading Trump by 6 points, though this is below the double-digit lead Biden had in 2020. Harris outpaces Trump among non-white voters but underperforms the support Biden received in this group four years ago. A significant gender gap exists in Wisconsin, with Harris leading Trump by 12 points among women and Trump leading by 9 points among men.

Both polls highlight the critical issues driving voter decisions. In Pennsylvania, Harris is perceived as better able to handle the abortion issue and preserving democracy, while Trump is viewed as stronger on immigration and the war in the Middle East. In Wisconsin, similar patterns emerge, with Harris seen as stronger on abortion and democracy, and Trump on the economy, immigration, and the war in the Middle East.

The polls also reveal that a significant portion of voters in both states have already cast their ballots or plan to do so before Election Day. In Pennsylvania, 62% of likely voters plan to vote in-person on Election Day, while in Wisconsin, 53% have already voted or plan to vote before Election Day.