Hungary Faces Energy Crisis Amid US Sanctions and Political Turmoil

BUDAPEST, Hungary — Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán expressed disappointment last week when the Trump administration canceled plans for a Budapest summit focusing on the ongoing war in Ukraine. The summit was meant to solidify Hungary’s role as a potential peace mediator. Orbán, aligning himself with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and former President Donald Trump, hoped to demonstrate that “the road to peace runs through Budapest.”

His plans were thwarted as the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, marking the first significant measures since Trump regained office. These sanctions pose a severe threat to Hungary’s economy, which has become increasingly dependent on Russian energy imports, unlike most EU nations that have diversified their energy sources since the conflict began in 2022.

Hungary, alongside Slovakia, now heavily relies on Russian oil, with 92% of its imports originating from there. Orbán faces mounting pressure as these sanctions coincide with a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) slated to take effect in 2027. Orbán previously warned Trump that cutting off Russian energy would cripple the Hungarian economy.

Despite his rhetoric asserting Hungary’s sovereignty against European Union uniformity, this energy dependence reveals a precarious position for Orbán. He has derided EU attempts to diversify energy supplies, clinging instead to relationships with authoritarian leaders. As Hungary approaches a critical election, the economic fallout from U.S. sanctions could disrupt his support.

Since Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU has aggressively sought to reduce energy imports from Russia. Hungary and Slovakia received exemptions to gradually diminish their reliance on Russian oil, yet they reportedly increased it instead. A report from the Center for the Study of Democracy indicates Hungary’s crude oil dependence jumped from 61% to 86% between pre-invasion 2021 and 2024.

The economic strain could intensify as Orbán contends with a growing opposition movement led by Peter Magyar, once a loyalist but now a leading challenger. With a potential Trump-Putin summit no longer on the horizon, Orbán’s strategic hopes seem dashed. He recently mentioned that his government is “working on how to circumvent” the U.S. sanctions while providing no considerable details.

The situation poses a test of the U.S. administration’s commitment to enforcing its sanctions, particularly against a key ally like Orbán. As Trump mentioned maintaining a future possibility for the summit, the effectiveness of these oil sanctions on Russia remains contingent upon rigorous enforcement.