Premier League: Scout Picks for Gameweek 21

The first Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline of 2024 is nearing – so it’s also time for the first Scout Picks proper of the calendar year.

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This is a Free Hit in all but name, with the focus solely on the upcoming Gameweek. Selections made in the FPL are a big factor when it comes to deciding who made the final cut.

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As ever, though, we are limited by certain restrictions: The betting money wouldn’t be on goalfest at Bramall Lane, as the division’s lowest goalscorers meet a West Ham United side potentially deprived of its entire frontline thanks to injury and unavailability.

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Alphonse Areola (£4.2m), on a run of three straight clean sheets, is averaging more FPL points per match (4.4) than any other first-choice goalkeeper in 2023/24.

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Pervis Estupinan (£5.0m) has two goals and three assists in just eight outings this season, with his average of 4.6 points per match beaten only by the two £6.9m+ premium defenders. It’s important to acknowledge that his position as a left-back restricts his ability to get forward; time will tell whether Brighton stick with that tactic. Even so, there’s a decent chance he may end up in a very advanced position at some point in the game – as he did in the final half an hour in the weekend cup tie against Stoke City.

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The possible return of Messrs Romero and van de Ven boosts Spurs’ clean sheet prospects, while Manchester United’s inconsistent form and wasteful finishing – only two clubs have scored fewer goals in 2023/24 – means a trip to Old Trafford is not to be feared. Not that you really own Pedro Porro (£5.8m) for his shut-outs: he’s first for shots and fourth for chances created among all Fantasy defenders this season.

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Arsenal are by some distance the best defence in the Premier League. Still boasting the joint-most shut-outs (seven) and the fewest expected goals conceded (16.64) in the division, they’ll be up against a Crystal Palace side potentially without the influential Michael Olise (£5.9m). The Scout Squad votes were split between the two centre-halves but we’ve sided with Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.0m), who has had almost three times as many shots as William Saliba (£5.6m) in 2023/24.

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Phil Foden (£7.9m) has posed a major goal threat in the ’10’ role over the last few games. The England international has been involved in 19 Manchester City shots in the last two Gameweeks alone, 10 attempts of his own and nine created for others. Newcastle, meanwhile, are fresh off the back of conceding the highest xG in a Premier League match on record. It’s not an isolated incident: the Magpies are bottom for xGC in their last six matches.

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Of the FPL midfielders available in Gameweek 21, Richarlison (£6.9m) is first for non-penalty xG, big chances and indeed goals in the last five Gameweeks. This five-match stretch has seen the Brazilian move to a centre-forward role. Even being substituted in all five fixtures – his average run-out has been around 70 minutes – hasn’t prevented him from racking up those numbers. Spurs, incidentally, are the only club to have scored in all of their league games this season.

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Gameweek 20’s highest points-scorer, Cole Palmer (£5.7m), gets the chance to build on his excellent points-per-start average of 7.3 against a Fulham side that has shipped 16 goals – and kept no clean sheets – in their last six away matches.

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Bukayo Saka (£9.1m) has blanked in four of the last five matches but there’s little wrong with his underlying numbers, with 27 shots in the last seven Gameweeks alone – a tally that no other midfielder can top. He enjoyed his best score (18 points) last season against the Eagles, who are themselves on a run of nine games without a clean sheet.

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And speaking of underlying stats, Pascal Gross (£6.5m) has been attracting our attention of late. Of the midfielders who are available in Gameweek 21, he joins Saka, Richarlison, and Palmer in the top four for expected goal involvement (xGI) in their last six matches. Season-wide, his 52 chances created is the second most in the Premier League.

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Welcome back, Ivan Toney (£7.9m). We may be jumping the gun here, particularly given that we won’t hear from Thomas Frank ahead of the Gameweek 21 deadline. But a behind-closed-doors treble against that recognised barometer of finishing prowess, the Southampton under-23s, suggests he’s primed and ready to go. Nottingham Forest are the hardest-hit Premier League team in terms of absentees through injury, while neither they nor opponents Brentford have kept a clean sheet in the last nine Gameweeks.

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Erling Haaland (£13.9m) made the ‘bus’ team, while Julian Alvarez (£7.0m) was given unanimous backing in the Scout Squad. But with these picks going out before Friday’s pressers, and the possibility that the two City forwards could be sharing game-time at Newcastle, we’ve opted to leave the City representation at Foden.

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Ollie Watkins (£8.9m), who carries the sixth-highest xGI in the last six matches of any FPL forward, takes on a Burnley side that has conceded the fourth-most shots in the division this season. Watkin