Tallahassee’s Snow Hopes Fade as Forecast Warms

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — The possibility of snow in Tallahassee, which had residents buzzing with excitement, dimmed Wednesday as updated forecasts showed warmer temperatures next week. The National Weather Service (NWS) revised its predictions, removing the snowflake icon from weather apps and tempering expectations for wintry precipitation.

In their morning forecast discussion, NWS meteorologists noted that while models initially suggested a potential for snow or freezing rain, the timing and conditions needed for such weather remain uncertain. “There is a strong chorus of models and members that spread precip into the cold air in a way that would pose a wintry precip threat,” the forecasters wrote. However, they emphasized that the models are likely to “take lots of twists and turns” in the coming days.

David Reese, a meteorologist with the NWS in Tallahassee, highlighted the challenges in predicting the exact conditions. “The biggest question is … will there be moisture?” Reese wrote in an afternoon forecast discussion. “Signs point to yes, but where and how much are the million-dollar questions right now.” He added that the synoptic pattern early next week could still support wintry weather, but details remain unclear.

Wright Dobbs, another NWS meteorologist, echoed the uncertainty, noting that model trends “can change for the better or the worse.” Dobbs explained that after a cold front brings widespread rainfall on Saturday, colder air will settle in, potentially setting the stage for a second system that could trigger wintry precipitation. “Looking at our history of winter weather here, it’s all about the right timing,” Dobbs said. “You have to have the cold air mass in place and a system coming in place over top of that.”

Tallahassee has a limited history of snowfall, with only 15 recorded instances since 1891, according to University of Florida researchers. Most of these events involved trace amounts, but the city set a local record on Feb. 12-13, 1958, when nearly 3 inches of snow fell. In 2018, Tallahassee experienced a rare winter weather event that included sleet, freezing rain, and measurable snowfall for the first time in nearly 30 years.

As residents await further updates, meteorologists caution that the forecast remains fluid. “We will all be chasing for these answers in the days ahead,” the NWS wrote, “but answers will be necessarily vague early on, until we get within a few days.”