The season’s fourth major — the Open Championship — kicks off Thursday at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England. The course figures to play firm and fast with little to no rain in the forecast. Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion and the favorite entering the week, with Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood among other top contenders.
Royal Birkdale’s 7,223 yards may not sound intimidating, but the renovation has changed how the course plays. Several holes have been reworked, including a revamped closing stretch that now asks players to survive one demanding test after another. The yardage barely increased, but with nearly every hole changed, strategy becomes paramount. New bunkers and layout force better decision-making rather than pure distance.
“When you give professional golfers options and you can create a little bit of doubt in their minds in terms of should I play this shot or that shot, that’s when things start to get fun,” said Rory McIlroy on Tuesday. “Fun, especially for the viewer. Not so much for us but that to me is the sign of a good championship test.”
Nearly every hole presents options. The first hole features a solitary bunker in a sand dune on the inside corner of the dogleg, with out of bounds lining the right. Players can lay back with a long iron, leaving an approach of around 200 yards, or cut the corner for a shorter shot. The green on the sixth has been remodeled, with a new pond lying in wait for any shot missing short and right. The 10th is a sharp dogleg left, where a solitary bunker guards the inside corner and three more sit on the outside.
“I know I’m hitting a club that could get me into trouble but to be in the best possible position for my second shot, that’s the shot that I need to play,” McIlroy said, describing the challenge of Birkdale.
Firm, brown fairways weave through the dunes, asking players to not only hit the fairways but hold them. Weeks of hot and dry weather in northwest England mean that the only green parts of the course are in fact the greens. The forecast is good, but by the weekend the breeze will pick up, drying out the course even more.
Scottie Scheffler, the defending champion, acknowledged the thinking required. “There’s a lot of thinking off the tee,” he said. “Whether or not you want to just hit driver up there somewhere and kind of play from the rough most likely, or do you want to start hitting some irons, getting it in some fairways and hitting some longer shots into the greens?”
Our experts weigh in on who will lift the Claret Jug. Matt Barrie picks Matt Fitzpatrick, citing his game and the firm conditions. Tory Cabrera expects Scheffler to bounce back after a missed cut. Michael Collins likes Tyrrell Hatton, noting his top-seven finishes in two of the last three majors. Michael Eaves goes with Tommy Fleetwood, believing it’s time for him to win his first major. Peter Lawrence-Riddell picks McIlroy, pointing to his strong record at Birkdale and recent driving form. Mark Schlabach and Marty Smith both choose Collin Morikawa, emphasizing his accuracy and short game. Curtis Strange picks Fitzpatrick, citing his English heritage and motivation. Paolo Uggetti selects Justin Rose, highlighting his emotional storyline and course fit.
Pamela Maldonado’s betting advice: She picks McIlroy to win at +850, liking his course management and long iron play. Her favorite bet to make the top 10 is Matt Fitzpatrick at +166, noting his strategic fit. For McIlroy, she recommends top past champion at +235. Her long shot is Si Woo Kim at +4300, citing his approach numbers and form.
The winning score is projected around 13-under par 267. The course is expected to remain firm and fast, making controlling distance a key challenge.
