North Jersey is bracing for a stretch of unsettled weather, with repeated showers and thunderstorms expected through the week. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon on Monday, and the system will linger into the evening before tapering off.
Brian Ciemnecki, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in New York, said the primary concern is not so much the wind or storms themselves but the water they bring. “The main threat with this rain is going to be the potential for flooding,” Ciemnecki said.
The region could pick up about three-quarters of an inch of rain on average, though thunderstorms and heavy downpours could produce significantly higher totals in localized areas. Forecasters are dealing with a complex setup: both a warm front and a cold front are draped across the area, keeping skies cloudy and making the forecast tricky.
Exactly where the heaviest rain falls remains unclear. “We have to watch where these heavy rain bands set up, if they even set up over northern New Jersey,” Ciemnecki noted. That uncertainty means one town might see a deluge while a nearby community remains relatively dry.
The Weather Prediction Center has placed the region under a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Monday—a Level 2 on its four-level scale. That means scattered flash flooding is possible, and forecasters will be monitoring the situation closely.
For residents living in flood-prone areas, Ciemnecki offered a direct warning: “If they are in an area that’s prone to flooding, they should certainly be weather aware and be cognizant that heavy rain could lead to flooding.” Even for those not in flood zones, it’s a good idea to check conditions before heading out, since the weather could change rapidly.
While tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are not expected, the strongest storms could still pack a punch. “You could get wind gusts as much as 60 miles an hour in some of the strongest storms. But it’s not the primary threat with this event. The primary threat’s going to be the potential for flooding,” Ciemnecki said.
The rain should slow down Monday evening, and Tuesday looks drier. However, the break won’t last long—rain chances are expected to pick up again by midweek. Temperatures will stay in the low to mid-80s during the day, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, thanks to the persistent cloud cover.