The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is pouring more than $30 million into Michigan‘s Democratic Senate primary, backing Rep. Haley Stevens against Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. It is the group’s largest ever investment in a single election, and it’s shaping up as a major test of AIPAC’s political muscle.
In less than five years, AIPAC has become one of the biggest spenders in American elections. Through its super PAC, the United Democracy Project, and other affiliated groups, it has flooded the airwaves in congressional races across the country. So far this year alone, AIPAC-affiliated groups have spent more than $67 million, according to a New York Times analysis of data from AdImpact, a media tracking firm. The group has $80 million in cash on hand.
But here’s a quirk: almost none of the ads mention Israel. Between April 2022 and the end of last month, AIPAC funded 109 TV and digital ads in American elections. Only six referred to Israel. Instead, the advertisements focus on issues that polling suggests are bigger priorities for voters, like abortion rights and the economy. The strategy, used by other political groups too, allows AIPAC to obscure its involvement.
“Our goal is to elect the largest bipartisan pro-Israel majority,” said Patrick Dorton, a spokesman for the United Democracy Project. He added that in most races, affordability issues matter more than Israel. But critics say the spending is hardly invisible. “Whether or not they are trying to hide behind the content of the ads, it is coming out who is behind the money, and ensures that this stays a hot-button issue,” said Brendan Glavin, director of insights at OpenSecrets, which tracks campaign spending.
AIPAC’s rapid growth in election spending marks a significant shift for a group that for decades was a bipartisan lobbying organization focused on influencing federal legislation. Alarmed by rising anti-Israel sentiment among Democrats, it started playing hardball in primaries. In 2022, AIPAC spent nearly $5 million to defeat Rep. Andy Levin, a Michigan Democrat who had introduced the Two-State Solution Act and drawn the group’s wrath. Levin, a former synagogue president, lost to Stevens.
More recently, AIPAC spent nearly $25 million in successful efforts to defeat Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri, both vocal critics of Israel. It also helped oust seven-term Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who had called for ending military aid to Israel. But the group has faced losses, too. In New Jersey, it spent more than $2 million trying to defeat Tom Malinowski, a Democrat broadly supportive of Israel but critical of its Gaza policy. The victor was Analilia Mejia, an even stauncher critic who has accused Israel of genocide. In Chicago, AIPAC’s attempt to elect Laura Fine backfired when Daniel Biss won after relentlessly hammering her for accepting the group’s support.
This week’s Michigan race could be AIPAC’s biggest defeat yet. El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, has run explicitly against AIPAC, arguing that the group’s heavy investment discredits his opponent. And polling shows him with a double-digit lead. If he wins, it would be a stunning reversal for a group that has often gotten its way.
Levin, who is now supporting El-Sayed, says the party’s base has shifted dramatically. “Genocide caused the change,” he said, noting the more than 70,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza. He also pointed to a broader disgust with dark money in politics. “The idea that AIPAC is using mostly dollars from Republican centimillionaires and billionaires to be the biggest spender in Democratic primaries — that’s so gross,” he said.
El-Sayed’s campaign has tapped into that anger. Levin believes the candidate can expand the electorate. “Abdul can attract voters across the political spectrum who hate the system,” he said. “He’s so different than Trump, but they look at him and are like, well, nobody’s going to mess with him.” The election is Tuesday, and the outcome will reverberate far beyond Michigan.