President Trump has long mused about being the most powerful man in history. He has started wars and remade the nation’s economic and strategic relationships. He has demanded, and largely received, total obedience from his party. But recent months have delivered a reckoning, crashing him against real limits.
The war in Iran, a conflict he once thought would take only a few weeks, hit the five-month mark today. Trump desperately wants it to end. After nearly two weeks of U.S. bombing, Tehran struck back against allies, including a hit on a military base in Jordan that killed three American service members. A cease-fire signed at Versailles last month has stalled; negotiations for permanent peace have gone nowhere. Iran continues to menace the Strait of Hormuz, threatening tolls on ships using the vital waterway.
At a White House meeting on Friday, senior advisers walked through the latest options. Trump had threatened escalation many times before, only for Iran to call his bluff. This time, a frustrated president seemed more inclined to order a heavier assault—but advisers once again opted against it. The risk of depleting defensive interceptor missiles, the prospect of a widening war, the anger of Gulf allies, and the potential for an energy or refugee crisis all gave pause. Trump told advisers he worried an escalation could spark a global economic conflagration and turn him into Hoover.
Domestically, Trump is flailing. His approval numbers have sunk. Republicans are beginning to defy him in small doses. He demanded the Senate blow up the filibuster to pass the SAVE Act, which would make voting more difficult and require proof of citizenship. Republicans refused. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has resisted eliminating the filibuster. Trump called yesterday for Republicans to stay in Washington to work on it, potentially saddling them with doomed votes and preventing them from campaigning ahead of the midterms.
Strategists from both parties predict at least one chamber of Congress will flip to the Democrats. Once the midterms are over, Trump could face his worst fear: irrelevance. He will be a lame duck, down to his final two years. As focus shifts to the 2028 presidential primaries, he risks disappearing from headlines. Even some of his closest allies don’t know how he’ll react.
His campaign swing through Michigan yesterday was a rarity in his second term. But his refrain was familiar: unfounded claims about election fraud, and he appeared alongside a GOP congressman who falsely said Trump had won the state three times. He has spent weeks talking about election security, prompting warnings that he’s setting up a pretext to challenge the results. His administration has appealed to the Supreme Court to curb mail-in voting, and he’s pushed relentlessly for voter restrictions.
The political calendar is relentless. Washington will soon turn its focus to 2028, a wide-open race with no incumbent. Trump may no longer be among each day’s top stories—arguably for the first time since he came down the Trump Tower escalator. He’ll aim to play GOP kingmaker, but he’ll also be staring at life as a private citizen again. His widely panned speech at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner offered a preview: grievances met mostly with silence.
Polling reality remains stark. The New York Times recently reported that Trump is now all but the most unpopular second-term president at this stage in history, with only Richard Nixon having less support—and Nixon resigned days after that point in his tenure. Trump, however, insists his real numbers are the best they’ve ever been, dismissing any contrary evidence as fake news.