The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the powerful pro-Israel lobby, has spent tens of millions of dollars on key congressional campaigns, but its latest mark is a California Democrat in a once-sleepy race. Voters in California’s 14th Congressional District go to the polls Tuesday to fill the vacancy created by the April resignation of Democrat Eric Swalwell.
The special election features two Democrats: state Sen. Aisha Wahab and BART Board President Melissa Hernandez. Wahab, the more progressive of the two candidates, has been the frontrunner throughout much of the campaign. As the New York Times reports, the contest is the “latest battleground in the ideological fight over the future of the Democratic Party.”
This will be the third time in less than three months that the two have faced each other. In the June 2 regular primary for the term beginning next year, Wahab finished first with 38% of the vote, more than 20 points ahead of Hernandez. Two weeks later, Wahab did even better in the special primary, receiving 43% to Hernandez’s 17%. Because no candidate won a majority, the top two advanced to Tuesday’s special election.
The contest has attracted significant late spending. Hernandez has raised and spent considerably more than Wahab, while outside groups have spent about $4.1 million since mid-July. Roughly $3.7 million of that spending has supported Hernandez or opposed Wahab, much of it coming from groups aligned with the pro-Israel organization AIPAC. The spending has given Hernandez an opportunity to narrow the performance gap from the earlier primaries.
Public safety has emerged as one of the major issues in the closing weeks, with Hernandez and allied groups attacking Wahab’s record in the state Legislature. Wahab, meanwhile, has criticized the influx of outside money into the race.
Regardless of Tuesday’s outcome, the two will meet again in November for a full two-year term. That election will use California’s new congressional map, although redistricting impacts to District 14 are minor. Prediction market 270toWin has partnered with Kalshi to show relevant prediction market content on the site and alongside live results through the 2026 midterm elections.
