Fox News anchor Ainsley Earhardt lamented on Friday about a new Fox News poll showing Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas. “If you look at that Fox News poll, he’s ahead by seven points in the state of Texas,” Earhardt said, adding: “How is that possible?” The “he” is Talarico, who leads Paxton in Fox’s striking new poll of Texas. This shocker prompted Earhardt’s guest to warn: “Texans have to wake up!”
In truth, both Fox figures are slightly overstating matters. The poll does show Talarico up by seven points among registered voters, 53–46. But it shows his lead is much tighter among likely voters, 51–49. The latter might matter more. Still, Talarico’s lead among both groups is remarkable in a state where no Democrat has won statewide in decades.
What’s more, the poll’s internals help shed light on Trump’s role in bringing about Talarico’s lead. Here the news for Trump is very bad, and it captures something essential about the winding-down Trump era. Let’s start with Trump’s approval among Texans. The Fox poll finds Trump badly upside down at 44–55—remarkable in a state he carried by 14 points in 2024.
Drill down, and it’s worse: Trump’s approval is underwater with non-college voters (47–53), meaning he’s losing the working class, and Latinos (38–61). He won the latter by 55–45 two years ago. And here’s a surprise: Trump is even underwater with Republicans who don’t identify as MAGA, or “non-MAGA Republicans,” at 46–53.
Why does that matter? The Fox poll sheds light here too: Only 50 percent of non-MAGA Republicans are “extremely interested” in the election, which lags behind Texas likely voters overall (62 percent), and even further behind Democrats (67 percent). It’s a big deal if non-MAGA Republicans are less enthusiastic about the election due to disapproval of Trump. Though MAGA Republicans are enthusiastic, a nontrivial number of GOP voters, alienated by Trump, may peel away and stay home.
Critically, this dovetails with the Talarico campaign’s theory of the case. Talarico is winning around 10 percent of Republican voters in the Fox poll, versus only 1 percent of Democrats going to Paxton (not a typo). This is driven by Talarico getting 22 percent of non-MAGA Republicans. Talarico constantly says siphoning off Republicans is essential to winning. He recently described them as “disillusioned” under Trump, adding: “We have a real opportunity to build a big coalition of Democrats, independents, and Republicans.”
This opportunity really is there. In addition to getting more than one-fifth of non-MAGA Republicans, Fox finds Talarico winning nearly one-fifth of conservatives, almost exactly at parity with Paxton among non-college voters—Talarico is getting half the working class! —and edging into the requisite mid-60s with Latinos. His 79 percent of Black voters probably needs improvement, but a big tent appears to be forming.
Indeed, Chuck Rocha, an adviser to the Talarico campaign, makes a critical point about these non-MAGA Republicans: Many are exactly the voters who would have supported Senator John Cornyn, and didn’t understand why Trump ordered them to vote for Paxton in the primary. Talarico’s ads, Rocha notes, often echo attacks on Paxton from Cornyn’s primary ads. “These non-MAGA Republican voters are the folks who liked Cornyn,” Rocha tells me. “They’re not just going to fall in line in the general when you see Talarico using the exact same issues against Paxton that Cornyn did.”
Exacerbating that dynamic is the economy: G. Elliott Morris’s new national poll finds that for the first time, a majority of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents disapprove of Trump on the cost of living. MAGA Republicans won’t let that dilute their support for Trump-endorsed candidates; non-MAGA ones, however, might.
Let’s be clear: None of this means a Talarico victory is remotely assured. This is absolutely on a knife’s edge. Talarico has led in most polls, and some quality surveys have found his lead significantly larger than Fox’s two-point likely-voter lead. Yet the averages have the race within three points. That’s very, very close. We’re talking about Texas here.
