Central Florida is heading into a very wet stretch of weather. Showers and storms return today, then rain chances climb even higher Tuesday and Wednesday as a stalled front sets up across the area. Repeated rounds of heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns.
Rain chances will range from 30% to 80%, with the best chances between 4 p.m. and midnight. A few stronger storms could produce frequent lightning, 35 to 45 mph wind gusts, and very heavy rain. Some locations could pick up 1 to 3 inches or more in an hour, which could cause minor flooding. Temperatures climb into the mid-80s to around 90, with heat indices in the mid-90s to near 100.
The bigger concern comes Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front stalls over Central Florida. Rain chances jump to 60 to 90% each day, with the most widespread showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. With plenty of moisture in place and storms moving slowly, repeated rounds of heavy rain could lead to flooding of roadways and low-lying areas. The Weather Prediction Center has placed Central Florida under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall both Tuesday and Wednesday.
The wet pattern does not completely go away Thursday through Sunday. Rain chances remain above normal, with scattered to widespread showers and storms each day. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly below normal, especially north of the stalled front, while overnight lows remain warmer than normal.
In the Orlando area, the FOX 35 Storm Team is tracking an increase in rain chances this week across Central Florida. FOX 35’s Noah Bergren has a look at the forecast, timeline, and rainfall potential. Most showers are expected during the afternoon and evening hours, primarily 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. each day. It is possible some showers could develop outside those hours. What does form will likely have heavy rainfall, localized flooding, a lot of lightning, and strong winds.
Rainfall totals will likely be between 3 to 6 inches through Thursday, according to forecast models. Showers and storms are in the forecast through Saturday, with a lighter chance of rain Sunday and Monday. The quietest hurricane season on record continues, but there is a likely chance we see a tropical system in the Gulf this week. The National Hurricane Center said a disturbance in the Gulf, known as Invest 92L, could become a tropical depression later this week. Some models have it becoming a tropical storm. If so, it would be known as Isaias. It has a narrow window of time to become a tropical storm or low-end hurricane, as hostile wind shear will rip it apart before landfall Friday into early Saturday. This system is expected to track eastward across the Gulf, before turning north towards the southern U.S.
On the Suncoast, a wetter stretch of weather is settling in, with rain chances climbing and some areas likely picking up several inches before the end of the week. Today will be warm and humid with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs reach the upper 80s near Sarasota and Bradenton and around 90 inland, where the heat index could top 100 degrees.
Rain becomes more widespread Tuesday as a weak front settles into Florida and stalls. Rain chances climb to around 80% near the coast and 90% inland. Wednesday could be one of the wettest days, with periods of rain and thunderstorms and some locally heavy downpours. Thursday and Friday remain unsettled with rain chances generally between 70% and 80%. Most of the Suncoast could receive 1 to 3 inches during the week, with locally higher amounts possible. Rain coverage should ease somewhat by Saturday.
Boating conditions remain fairly quiet Monday and Tuesday, with winds generally 5 to 10 knots and seas around 2 feet or less. Northeast winds increase Wednesday, reaching 15 to 20 knots Wednesday night, with seas building to 2 to 3 feet. The tropics also bear watching. The National Hurricane Center says low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Gulf around midweek. A tropical depression could develop late in the week, with a 40% chance of formation through seven days. It is too early to know whether the system will have any direct impact on the Suncoast. Nationally, heavy rain is possible across parts of Texas and Florida early in the week, while unusual October heat continues in California. Cooler fall weather spreads into the Great Lakes and Northeast.
