ASML Anticipates Decline in China Sales Amid Growth Concerns

Veldhoven, Netherlands — ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant, addressed concerns about its growth in 2026 on Wednesday. The company warned that it expects a “significant” decline in sales in China, impacting its overall performance.

During a conference call, ASML stated that it does not foresee total net sales for 2026 to drop below the figures from 2025. However, the firm highlighted an anticipated decrease in customer demand and sales in China compared to the previous years, 2024 and 2025.

This guidance is crucial for ASML after its shares fell sharply in July due to uncertainties surrounding its growth forecast for 2026. The company attributed these uncertainties to increasing macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical tensions.

ASML, which recently became the most valuable listed company in Europe, has been affected by domestic export restrictions in the Netherlands and U.S. regulations. Despite these challenges, analysts remain optimistic about ASML’s future. Firms like Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Jefferies have expressed bullish views on the company.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted that the expansion of AI chip foundries and ramped-up semiconductor manufacturing in China are expected to boost ASML’s growth. Ahead of ASML’s earnings release, UBS pointed to stronger-than-expected sales in the smartphone and PC markets, alongside growth led by AI-related memory products.

ASML is also positioned to benefit from a recent $5 billion deal between Nvidia and Intel, which is likely to increase demand for semiconductor equipment.

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