Mid-Atlantic Winter Forecast: Uncertain Snowfall and Above-Average Temperatures

The approaching winter season in the Mid-Atlantic region is predicted to be marked by less snow and above-average temperatures, according to Chief Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily from WBFF. This forecast comes as the area braces for its typically volatile winter weather, driven by the clash of cold, dry air from Canada with warm, moist air from the southern states and the Gulf Stream waters.

«The interaction of these air masses under the influence of the Jetstream can lead to powerful storm systems,» said Jebaily. This makes forecasting particularly challenging but crucial for preparing for potential disruptive weather events.

Historically, Baltimore, Maryland, has averaged 16.5 inches of snowfall each winter since 1893. Last winter, however, the city saw only 11.3 inches of snow despite experiencing a wetter-than-average season, with a total liquid equivalent of 15.11 inches. This figure is significantly higher than the 9.7-inch average recorded since 1950. The average temperature last winter reached 40.8 degrees, above both the 20-year and mid-century averages.

Looking forward to the winter of 2024-2025, Jebaily anticipates a below-average snow season. «Current global patterns and cycles suggest the winter will be milder,» he explained. «We can expect temperatures above the historical average, with lower than average precipitation levels.»

Despite the overall forecast, Jebaily does foresee periods of arctic air in late December through January, which may result in snowfalls across the region. However, these instances are not expected to contribute significantly to the seasonal snow totals.

High elevations in western Maryland and West Virginia are preparing for early snow this week, driven by a stalled upper-level low over Central New York. This system is pulling down unusually cold air, activating the «Lake Effect Snow machine» over the Great Lakes, according to meteorological analyses.

The anticipated cold winds and trough formations could extend some snow transitions into central Maryland, although sticking snow is unlikely unless temperatures drastically drop. «Most snow in lower elevations may not accumulate,» Jebaily noted.