Jill Stein’s Impact on the 2024 US Presidential Election: Polls and Voter Dynamics

As the 2024 US presidential election reaches its climax, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump are locked in a tight race, with several key states hanging in the balance. However, the influence of third-party candidates, particularly Jill Stein of the Green Party, could play a significant role in the outcome.

In Michigan, a crucial swing state, Stein is gaining support from Arab and Muslim American voters who are dissatisfied with the Biden-Harris administration‘s stance on Israel‘s conflict in Gaza. According to an August opinion poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), 40% of Muslim voters in Michigan support Stein, while only 12% back Harris and 18% support Trump.

Current polls in Michigan show Harris and Trump tied at 45% each, with Stein polling at around 2%. This small but significant percentage could potentially sway the outcome in Michigan, a state that Trump won by a narrow margin in 2016 and which Biden reclaimed for the Democrats in 2020 by a similarly slim margin.

Beyond Michigan, Stein’s impact is being felt across other swing states. According to polls conducted by AtlasIntel between October 30 and October 31, Stein’s support varies: 1.1% in Arizona, 2% in Georgia, 1.7% in Michigan, 1.2% in Nevada, 0.7% in North Carolina, 1% in Pennsylvania, and 0.8% in Wisconsin. While these percentages are small, they could be critical in a race as tight as the 2024 election.

Historical context suggests that even small percentages can make a significant difference. In the 2016 presidential election, Jill Stein’s candidacy was criticized for potentially helping Trump win by drawing votes away from Hillary Clinton. This year, similar dynamics could play out, especially in states where voter sentiment is highly divided.

Despite the potential impact of Stein’s candidacy, analysts like Sam Hamad from The New Arab predict that Harris’s overall popularity and strong performance in other polls may still secure her the presidency. However, the final outcome remains uncertain and will be determined by the votes cast on Election Day.