Kovacevic and Ugo Carabelli Face Off at ATP Stockholm Open

STOCKHOLM, Sweden — Aleksandar Kovacevic and Camilo Ugo Carabelli will compete in the round of 32 at the ATP Stockholm Open on Wednesday, October 15, 2025. Dimers’ advanced tennis model predicts Kovacevic as the likely winner with a 69% chance of success.

Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn shared insights on the match, stating, “We have simulated the outcome of Wednesday’s Kovacevic-Ugo Carabelli match 10,000 times. With the latest updates and numerous other variables, we estimate Aleksandar Kovacevic’s chance of winning at 69%, with Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 31%.” Additionally, the simulations estimate Kovacevic to have a 66% chance of winning the first set.

The betting odds reflect Kovacevic’s favored status, with a moneyline of -275 compared to Ugo Carabelli’s +220. Specific odds for the match also include Kovacevic at -227 for the first set, and a games spread favoring Kovacevic at +3.5. The total games line is set at 22.5, with bets placed under having slightly better odds.

Kovacevic has been looking for a solid rebound at this tournament, having faced setbacks in previous competitions, while Ugo Carabelli enters struggling with seven losses in his last nine matches. The first meeting on the ATP tour between these players adds an interesting dynamic as both have different styles and experience levels.

Kovacevic brings a strong presence to hard courts that generally favors his depth and endurance while Ugo Carabelli’s game still adapts to the fast-paced indoor environment of the Stockholm Open.

The match is set to begin at 7:00 AM ET, under the bright indoor lights of the Royal Tennis Hall, where both players hope to capture a critical early win in their campaign at the ATP level.