Lars Nootbaar Shows Potential with Key Adjustments This Season

ST. LOUIS, Mo. — Lars Nootbaar, a promising hitter for the St. Louis Cardinals, is making significant strides during the early weeks of the 2025 MLB season. Currently boasting a .414 batting average, Nootbaar has demonstrated improved plate discipline, raising expectations for his continued development.

Since his debut in 2021, Nootbaar has consistently showcased his ability to draw walks, possessing a walk rate of 13.6% that ranks eighth among 305 players with at least 1,000 plate appearances in that span. This discipline, alongside a .250/.352/.431 triple-slash line and a .341 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), positions him among some of baseball’s elite hitters.

Despite his achievements, Nootbaar remains relatively underappreciated. Acknowledging his potential, analysts have pointed to a belief that he has more capabilities yet to be unlocked. In the early stages of 2025, emerging statistics suggest that Nootbaar is addressing key areas for improvement, particularly his launch angle, which previously hampered his ability to generate higher fly balls.

Throughout his Major League career, Nootbaar has maintained above-average exit velocities, recording an impressive average of nearly 91 mph. Notably, he has posted a hard-hit rate of 43.6%, significantly surpassing the league average. However, his career ground ball rate of 49%, which exceeds the MLB average of 44.4%, has limited his power output significantly.

As he attempts to elevate more of his contact, Nootbaar has been candid about his struggles with his swing mechanics. In an early 2023 interview with FanGraphs, he reflected, “I’ve kind of always had a flat swing. Now I’m getting into the habit of trying to get out of that.” He emphasized his focus on generating loft with his swings in order to improve his offensive performance.

By April 2025, early trends in Nootbaar’s batted ball profile have shown promise. He has exhibited significant changes, with a rise in air contact to 71.4% while drastically reducing his ground ball percentage to 28.6%. This shift is indicative of his commitment to improving his launch angle with each swing.

Statcast data reveals that Nootbaar has made more subtle adjustments, closing his stance and positioning further up in the box. These changes have led to him hitting the ball over four inches closer to the front of the plate than before, potentially boosting his ability to achieve higher launch angles.

His swing speed has also improved, registering in the 80th percentile league-wide. Nootbaar’s commitment to refining his technique has resulted in a substantial increase in the number of faster swings, an approach that typically correlates with better batted ball quality.

While Nootbaar’s on-base skills and newfound aggression reflect a more well-rounded player, he has faced challenges with injuries that have limited his playtime in past seasons. His 1,414 plate appearances since 2021 create concern compared to performance expectations, illustrating the importance of health in his development as a complete hitter.

As the 2025 season unfolds, Nootbaar has an opportunity to maximize his potential, balancing his disciplined approach with the aggressive swing necessary to capitalize on hittable pitches. The progression he’s made this season, along with consistent playing time, might finally reveal the player many recognize as a rising star within baseball.

This Sunday, Nootbaar and the Cardinals are set to face off against Sean Newcomb and the Chicago Cubs at 1:35 PM ET on NESN and FDSMW. With a four-game hitting streak and two hits in his last outing, Nootbaar will look to continue his impressive performance and solidify his status within MLB.