B.C. NDP Regains Lead in Provincial Election Polls

With the British Columbia provincial election approaching on October 19, a new poll by Leger suggests that the B.C. NDP has taken back the lead from the B.C. Conservative Party among decided voters. The poll, conducted online with 1,002 British Columbians from October 3 to 7, indicates that 47% of decided voters support the NDP, compared to 42% for the Conservatives.

John Rustad‘s Conservatives had previously been ahead of the incumbent NDP led by David Eby since mid-September. This change follows the collapse of the B.C. United Party in late August. The most recent figures mark a shift from the previous Leger poll, which ended on September 30 and showed the Conservatives leading by three percentage points.

Leger’s executive vice-president in Western Canada, Steve Mossop, identified a notable demographic shift as a key factor in this change. “It’s really clear. Up to this point in the campaign, Rustad has been doing unexpectedly well among youth and female voters. All of a sudden, that balloon has popped,” Mossop explained.

The latest poll indicates a significant reduction in Tory support among female voters, dropping eight percentage points to 34% from 42% in late September, while the NDP’s support in this group increased by ten points to 56%. A similar trend is observed among younger voters aged 18 to 34, with 50% now supporting the NDP compared to 38% for the Conservatives.

This shift in support could be attributed to recent controversies, including a video showing Rustad apparently equating COVID-19 public health measures to the Nuremberg trials. Mossop noted that such incidents might have “spooked” progressive voters who initially favored a right-of-centre government.

Moreover, NDP attack ads suggesting potential cuts to health-care spending by the Conservatives appear to have resonated with voters prioritizing healthcare, further impacting Tory support. “It seems like the general public is buying it,” Mossop commented, as health care remains a top priority for voters.

The polling data also highlights a decrease in undecided voters, with the percentage falling from 11% in early September to 8%. This trend has not benefited the Conservatives, as more voters finalize their decisions in favor of the NDP.

Leader approval ratings have remained stable, with David Eby holding the highest approval at 46% among major party leaders. John Rustad follows at 38%, slightly behind Green Leader Sonia Furstenau at 36%. Leger’s final poll results are expected to be released two days before the election.