San Diego Border Communities Shift Rightward as Trump Gains Latino Support

SAN YSIDRO, Calif. — As Justin Hodge watched his daughter play at a park in this border community, his thoughts turned to the future. With President-elect Donald Trump set to take office, Hodge, a father of two, expressed deep concern for his family. “I’m scared for them more than anything,” he said, reflecting on Trump’s campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again.” “America was never great to begin with for people of color.”

Just down the street, Leonard Cuen, owner of San Ysidro Feed & Supply, had a different perspective. “I’m excited,” Cuen said. “I can’t wait to see how much my taxes dropped. I can’t wait to hear all my buddies that are looking for jobs, telling me they got jobs.”

The contrasting views in San Ysidro, a community where 90% of residents are Hispanic, highlight a surprising political shift in South San Diego County. According to a KPBS analysis of voting data, Trump gained significant ground in the 2024 election, particularly in border communities like San Ysidro and Chula Vista. In San Ysidro, Trump’s share of the vote rose by 13 percentage points compared to 2020, while in Chula Vista, it increased by 7 points.

Political scientists attribute this shift to a broader national trend of conservative-leaning Latinos realigning with the Republican Party. “That could certainly be part of that national trend among conservative-leaning Latinos to realign with the Republican Party,” said Casey Dominguez, a political science professor at the University of San Diego. Dominguez noted that issues like immigration, the economy, and abortion may be driving this “ideological sorting.”

Hector Gastelum, a lifelong Republican and Chula Vista resident, believes more Latinos will join the GOP. “Most Latinos go to church. Most Latinos are conservative. But they’re not Republican yet,” he said. Gastelum, who ran for mayor of Chula Vista in 2018, cited the high cost of groceries, gas, and housing under the Biden administration as key factors driving this shift.

For some voters, like Carlos Castro of Chula Vista, dissatisfaction with both major parties led them to abstain or vote for third-party candidates. Castro, who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, wrote in Green Party candidate Jill Stein this year. “With the recent news of how the Democrats have been handling, and how much of our tax money had been sent to Israel to this genocide, I just didn’t want to be part of that anymore,” he said.

Meanwhile, Arturo Castro of Bonita voted for Kamala Harris, citing honesty as his top priority. “She’s more honest,” he said. “Having someone who’s truthful in the White House and doesn’t embarrass the country with lies.”

As South San Diego County grapples with this political realignment, the upcoming race to replace former County Board of Supervisors Chair Nora Vargas could serve as a litmus test for the region’s shifting priorities. “There’s going to be a shift to the right because we have Democrats in power, and they’re not doing what they’re supposed to do,” said Sandy Naranjo, a Democrat and former port commissioner.

For now, residents like Khristina Lambert of National City are bracing for the next four years. “I just keep praying,” she said. “We done made it through Bush and everybody else. We can make it through him another term.”