Tensions Escalate: Iran and Israel in Focus as Oil Tankers Vacate Kharg Island

Iranian General Ebrahim Rostami recently stirred the international community with his assertion that Tehran possesses weapons more destructive than nuclear bombs. The remarks, referencing their past use in conflicts, arrive amid mounting tensions between Iran and Israel. Iranian lawmakers have been urging the revision of the country’s military doctrine due to these escalating frictions.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly assured U.S. President Joe Biden that Israel intends to target only military infrastructure in Iran, deliberately avoiding nuclear and oil facilities. According to sources cited by the Washington Post, this conversation took place on October 9, with Netanyahu indicating that Israel’s military actions would focus on military targets to avert a broader conflict.

This discourse reportedly brought relief to the White House, especially given the implications of targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities. An attack on these could result in significant energy price hikes and potentially escalate tensions to draw the United States into a larger conflict. President Biden had previously expressed his view that it would be inappropriate for Israel to launch strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, describing Netanyahu’s stance as “more moderated” compared to previous discussions.

In light of these developments, actions on the ground have reflected the heightening apprehensions. Reports from TankerTrackers, a firm specializing in monitoring global tanker movements, have documented a significant departure of Iranian super-tankers from Kharg Island, a key oil terminal. The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) seems to be preparing for a possible Israeli attack, as evidenced by the emptying of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) from the terminal.

This marks a historical event, being the first occurrence of such an extensive departure since sanctions were imposed in 2018. The departure was also corroborated by Hunterbrook, an open-source investigative agency, which analyzed satellite data showing a complete vacancy at the anchorage for the first time in recent history.

The strategic importance of Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, cannot be overstated. An attack on this island could have dire consequences, disrupting Iran’s economic lifeline and potentially causing crude oil prices to spike by about 5% globally. The repercussions would be felt particularly strongly by China, the world’s largest oil importer.

In response to potential threats to Kharg Island, Tehran has threatened retaliatory strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil export terminal, underscoring the risk of broader regional destabilization. An escalation of this nature could involve additional countries in the conflict, further exacerbating tensions in the Middle East, a region already marked by intricate political and military dynamics.