The San Diego Padres return to Petco Park on Friday to start a homestand against the New York Yankees, but this is no ordinary series. The Padres have suddenly lost seven of their last nine games despite a 2.88 ERA over that stretch, and their grip on a postseason spot is loosening by the day.
San Diego sits 73-67, third in the NL West, a half-game behind the Diamondbacks for the NL’s third wild-card spot. The Marlins, at 71-69, have crept to within 2½ games. FanGraphs gives the Padres a 40.8% chance of making the playoffs. That number feels fragile.
The Yankees arrive with an 80-60 record, second in the AL East. They have won six of their last 10 games and trail the Rays by three games in the division. They hold a 4½-game lead over the Red Sox as the AL’s top wild-card team. Last year, the Yankees took two of three from the Padres in New York.
Since the All-Star break, the contrast between these teams is sharp. New York’s .673 OPS ranks 27th in the majors, but their 2.93 ERA is the best in baseball. The Padres have a .762 OPS, third best, and a 3.30 ERA, second only to the Yankees. During San Diego’s recent 1-5 road trip, however, the bats went quiet—a .654 OPS, 24th in the majors—and the pitching wasn’t sharp either, with a 4.03 ERA.
Several hitters stand out. Cody Bellinger is hitting .414/.414/.414 over the last week. Three Yankees have two homers apiece in the past seven games: Paul Goldschmidt, former La Costa Canyon High star Spencer Jones, and Austin Wells. Trent Grisham, a former Padre, is mired in a slump at .091/.192/.091.
For the Padres, Ty France and Fernando Tatis Jr. each homered twice on the road trip. But Jake Cronenworth struggled mightily, hitting .048/.130/.095.
Friday’s opener features Yankees left-hander Max Fried, 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA, who is expected to be paired with right-hander Will Warren in a piggyback arrangement. Fried threw 63 pitches in his first start back from a bone bruise in his elbow on Saturday, allowing one run over 3⅔ innings. He owns a 2.11 ERA in seven regular-season starts against the Padres, but he took the loss in his 2024 NL Wild Card Series start for the Braves, surrendering five earned runs in just two innings.
The Padres counter with right-hander Walker Buehler, who is 8-6 with a 4.66 ERA. He posted a 3.16 ERA in six August starts after a brutal July that saw him at 9.82. His home and road splits differ markedly: 4.15 ERA at Petco Park, 5.23 away. His only regular-season start against the Yankees came last year—a loss where he gave up seven earned runs in 4⅓ innings.
Saturday’s game is a lefty duel. Carlos Rodon starts for New York. He hasn’t completed five innings in three starts since missing a month with elbow inflammation, though his ERA over that span is a tidy 2.84. He also missed the first month of the season after undergoing a procedure to remove a bone spur and loose bodies. Rodon has a 2.27 ERA in five career starts against the Padres, including a no-decision in 2025 when he shut them out over 6⅔ innings.
Robbie Ray goes for San Diego. Acquired in a trade, he is 11-7 with a 3.14 ERA overall. In five starts since joining the Padres, his ERA is 3.42, but command has been an issue—he has struck out 19 and walked 16 in 26⅓ innings. The Padres are just 2-3 in his starts. Ray has a 3.89 ERA in eight career outings versus the Yankees, including a loss earlier this season while with the Giants.
Sunday’s starter for the Yankees has not been named by manager Aaron Boone. The Padres will send Michael King, who is 9-9 with a 3.11 ERA. King, a former Yankee, has strung together five consecutive quality starts, posting a 1.71 ERA with 27 strikeouts and nine walks over 31⅔ innings. Since joining the Padres in the Juan Soto trade, he has faced his old team once, spinning a quality start in the Bronx last year—six innings, two earned runs, no decision.
Injury news looms over the series. Aaron Judge could return from his rib injury as soon as next week, while rookie shortstop George Lombard Jr. is day-to-day with knee discomfort. The Yankees are also without Ryan Weathers, Clarke Schmidt, Fernando Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, Kervin Castro, and Angel Chivilli.
For the Padres, Joe Musgrove has thrown well on his rehab assignment, but the recovery between starts has been slow, and his return this season is uncertain. Nick Pivetta has moved his rehab to Triple-A El Paso. Gavin Sheets was placed on the injured list Sunday with plantar fasciitis, and Luis Rengifo suffered a season-ending knee injury. Also on the shelf are Jeremiah Estrada, Miguel Andujar, and Jason Adam.
