Tech
Crypto Expert Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Cycle Shift Amid Economic Changes

Hong Kong, China — Crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes believes that the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin may be coming to an end. In a blog post titled “Long Live the King” published Thursday, Hayes argues that unlike past patterns, Bitcoin might not crash next year after reaching its next peak.
Typically, Bitcoin has followed a cycle where it hits a high the year after its halving, then plunges by 70-80% the subsequent year. However, experts have varied opinions on how Bitcoin will behave after its all-time high in 2024. This year, many crypto traders anticipate a continuation of past trends, but Hayes disagrees.
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,” wrote Hayes, previously the CEO of BitMEX. “They apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past. Without this historical understanding, they miss why it will fail this time.” Hayes has been arguing that changes in the money supply will impact digital assets positively.
He outlined how lower interest rates, as encouraged by U.S. President Donald Trump, would facilitate more cash flow in the economy and benefit cryptocurrencies. Hayes mentioned that Bitcoin often performs well when interest rates are low, as has been the case with stocks.
“In the U.S., newly elected President Trump wants to run the economy hot. He routinely speaks about America growing in order to reduce its debt load,” wrote Hayes. “He lambasts the Fed for a too-tight monetary supply. His desire is generating action. The Fed resumed cutting interest rates in September even though inflation is above its own target.”
According to Hayes, monetary policies from both Washington and Beijing indicate that money will become cheaper and more plentiful, paving the way for Bitcoin’s rise. However, analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s trajectory. Some believe the top price may have been reached, while others contend the conditions are still favorable.
Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, noted that the current cycle appears to be undervalued by 20-50% based on liquidity conditions. “Despite near-term volatility tied to Fed policy recalibration and dollar weakness, our model suggests a sustained reflationary impulse will persist as monetary easing broadens across advanced economies in 2026,” he commented.
Meanwhile, Adam McCarthy, a Senior Research Analyst at Kaiko, pointed out the unpredictability of cryptocurrencies. “Crypto is 16 years old. You can’t figure out a pattern for an asset that young,” he stated.