Humanity at Crossroads: Author Warns of Civilization’s Critical Tipping Point

LONDON, U.K. — Humanity is at a critical juncture, teetering between authoritarian collapse and a future of superabundance, according to a new study by Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, a distinguished fellow at the U.K.-based Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems. Published in a recent journal, the research warns that industrial civilization is in decline, and the next five years will determine the trajectory of human well-being for the rest of the century.

Ahmed, a bestselling author and journalist who has spoken at United Nations summits, argues that industrial civilization is facing an “inevitable” decline. He predicts it will be replaced by a “postmaterialist” civilization powered by distributed clean energy and advanced technologies. However, the rapid pace of decline could derail this transition, leading to global crises and potential collapse.

“We live in a historic now-or-never moment,” said Gaya Herrington, a sustainability researcher at KPMG, who endorsed Ahmed’s findings. “What we do in the next five years will determine our well-being levels for the rest of this century.”

Ahmed’s study outlines a four-stage life-cycle for civilizations: growth, stability, decline, and transformation. He asserts that today’s industrial civilization is in the decline phase, exacerbated by authoritarian politics and the fossil fuel industry’s resistance to change. The global decrease in energy return on investment is a central factor in this decline.

Investing in clean energy, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and lab-grown agriculture could create a new era of “networked superabundance,” Ahmed says. However, these advancements must be governed responsibly, free from outdated industrial hierarchies. “An amazing new possibility space is emerging,” he said. “But if we fail to evolve, these capabilities could be our undoing.”

Ahmed warns that the rise of authoritarian and far-right governments increases the risk of collapse. “Instead of evolving, we would regress — if not collapse,” he said.

In his book “A Darwinian Survival Guide,” University of Toronto Professor Daniel Brooks offers a more optimistic perspective. While acknowledging the dangers, Brooks believes that even a major collapse of technological humanity would not lead to apocalypse. “The solution lies in changing our behavior,” he said, emphasizing the need to reject anti-science authoritarianism.

Ahmed’s research follows dire warnings from scientists about Earth’s rapidly warming future. Last year, a team of international researchers reported that key planetary boundaries — which define a safe operating space for humanity — have been breached. Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, described the planet as “unwell” and warned of irreversible harm if pressures continue to mount.

Amnesty International Secretary General Agnès Callamard echoed these concerns in September, stating that humanity faces a crossroads due to multiple wars, extreme inequality, and climate collapse. “We have no time left for complacency or defeatism,” she said.

As the world grapples with these challenges, Ahmed’s study serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for collective action to secure a sustainable future.