HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — A New York Times/Siena poll shows Democratic candidates leading in two major Texas races ahead of Election Day, but political experts say voters should view the results with caution.
The poll put Democratic candidate James Talarico up 6 points over Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa up 4 points over Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.
Experts told ABC13 the results are surprising and not in line with other polls currently out. Rice University political science professor Mark Jones said, “Has Talarico 6 points up and it had Gina Hinojosa leading Greg Abbott, which is a little bit unusual; we’ve seen in a series of polls that she’s been breaking even.”
University of Houston political science lecturer Nancy Sims said, “James Talarico well ahead of Ken Paxton and Gina Hinojosa well ahead of Greg Abbott, that’s not what most polls are saying.”
Sims said most polling shows a closer governor’s race and a smaller lead for Talarico. She said what matters most is relying on credible independent sources that show cross tabs and have a small margin of error. She said it is important to take all polling with a grain of salt. “I always say take polls as a point of view, at that point in time,” Sims said. “Ken Paxton has put out new ads this week; are those going to change the way people feel about him?”
Sims said only time and new polling will tell. Jones said it is important to look at more than one poll to get a better sense of how different results align with each other. “You have access to multiple high-priority polls from independent groups, take the average of those polls, don’t look at any one poll in isolation, one poll is much more likely to be off than the group is as a whole,” Jones said.
Separately, a new database of polls compiled by FiftyPlusOne for an MS NOW opinion column found that Ken Paxton has the worst favorability rating of any Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. In an average of 12 different polls, 51.7% of Texans said they viewed Paxton unfavorably, compared to 37.5% who viewed him favorably. That makes for a net rating of -14%.
Paxton has an infamous political biography, including allegations of marital infidelity and corruption during his time as the Lone Star State’s attorney general. The Texas House of Representatives impeached Paxton in May 2023 on charges of bribery, abuse of office and obstruction, but he was subsequently acquitted by the Texas Senate in September 2023.
The Texas Democratic challenger, state Rep. James Talarico, currently boasts a +6.5-point favorability advantage, with 46.6% of Texans giving him a positive rating and 40.0% viewing him negatively.
Among the GOP‘s other comparable negative favorability ratings are North Carolina GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley, the current chair of the Republican National Committee, who is trailing in the polls by 10 percentage points to Roy Cooper, the former Democratic governor of the state; and Roger Marshall, the incumbent Republican senator from Kansas, who has been dogged by controversies in a much closer-than-expected race in that state against first-time candidate – and former Republican turned Democrat – Adam Hamilton.
None of the Republican Party’s nominees for U.S. Senate in competitive races have positive favorability ratings on average. Paxton has the worst ratings, at -14, while the GOP nominee in Iowa, Ashley Hinson, has an average rating of -2.
But Paxton also has the lowest rating compared to his Democratic opponent of any of the GOP candidates across the country. That roughly 21-point gap is the largest between any pair of candidates across the country.
President Donald Trump won Texas by 14 percentage points in 2024, but the FiftyPlusOne forecasting model now puts the race as “leaning Democratic.” In states that Trump won by double digits in 2024, Republican nominees trail their rivals on favorability by 13 points on average. In Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska, the Democratic nominee averages a favorability rating of +6, and the Republican -7. In the four closer states, that gap shrinks to about 6 points.
Some of this edge for the Democrats is the result of solid recruiting of quality candidates. But Republicans are underwater of their own volition in most of these competitive races, as Democrats aren’t exactly sailing on popularity, either. The Democratic nominees in Michigan, Maine and New Hampshire are all underwater, too, with a net favorability rating, respectively, of -1.8, -4.6 and -11.3. But in those three states, the Republican nominee is still less popular, on a net basis, than the Democrats.
Paxton seems to know he’s in trouble. “I don’t have the ability to change anything,” he told donors at a private fundraiser last month, according to Politico. He said his campaign was effectively being run by the national party and the president in Washington.
