U.S. Coffee Prices Expected to Soar Amid Brazil Tariff Threat

NEW YORK, NY – Experts say coffee prices could rise significantly in the coming months following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a potential 50% tariff on coffee imports from Brazil, the largest supplier of coffee to the United States.

Brazil exports approximately 25% of the total coffee consumed in the U.S. If the tariffs go into effect, U.S. buyers may not find cheaper alternatives, according to senior coffee broker Michael Nugent of MJ Nugent & Co.

“The U.S. will buy coffee from someone else — Colombia, Honduras, Peru, Vietnam — but not at Brazil’s volume or price,” Nugent said.

Currently, U.S. coffee production cannot meet the national demand. As a result, imposing tariffs on Brazilian coffee is expected to have a ripple effect on growers in Brazil, who may need to look for new markets, particularly in Europe.

Earlier this year, Trump announced a modest 10% tariff on Brazilian imports, a rate that has now been significantly increased due to political tensions. Trump cited the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro as a key factor in issuing the new tariff rate.

“The way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro… is an international disgrace,” Trump wrote in a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He accused Brazil of undermining free elections with this prosecution.

The new tariff is set to take effect on August 1, though some imports may be exempt. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick previously indicated that certain fruits and spices could escape the tariff.

Market prices for coffee have already increased in recent years due to inflation, growing demand, and adverse weather conditions affecting coffee-producing regions.

Reneé Colón, a coffee shop owner in New York, expressed concern about rising prices on multiple fronts. “It drives the price up for us, tough on consumers because they pay more, and hard on farmers who may face significant losses,” she explained.