Escalations in the Middle East: Israel and Iran Proxies Intensify Conflict

In recent weeks, a significant escalation has unfolded in the Middle East, marked by an increase in attacks involving missiles, drones, and rockets launched by Iran-linked militias in Iraq. Analysts suggest that these actions represent a largely covert proxy war spanning Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, potentially setting the stage for Israeli retaliation against Tehran.

According to reports, these assaults began in October last year, coinciding with the onset of conflict in Gaza. However, data from a US-based think tank indicates a notable uptick in the frequency of attacks following an airstrike on Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27. Michael Knights, an analyst with the Washington Institute, highlighted the intensified missile and drone launches from Iraq aimed at Israel as a demonstration of support for Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, established with Iranian backing in Lebanon more than four decades ago, is considered a cornerstone of a coalition of militant groups curated by Iran over the years. The ongoing Israeli offensive in Lebanon has significantly weakened Hezbollah, prompting Tehran to rally other factions in its “axis of resistance” against Israel.

Iranian-backed proxies, particularly in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, are seen as potential targets for Israeli strikes as policymakers contemplate responses to Iran’s ballistic missile launch against Israel on October 1. Skirmishes have been ongoing, with Israel conducting numerous airstrikes and ground operations targeting Iran-affiliated groups in Syria, where they seek to disrupt supply routes crucial to Iran’s logistical support to Hezbollah.

Kirsten Fontenrose, an expert at the Atlantic Council, interpreted a recent incident involving the explosion of Hezbollah’s communications equipment as a brief “flash of light on a dark network map,” aiding global intelligence efforts to map the organization’s expansive reach.

In a notable operation last month, Israeli special forces targeted a weapons production site associated with Iran in Masyaf, located in western Syria. Israeli raids have increased, reportedly following an attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, with targets including industrial sites and military positions across various Syrian regions.

Israel has not limited its military actions to Syria. The country has struck oil storage and power facilities in Yemen, with significant civilian casualties reported, sparking concerns over escalating regional tensions.

Daniel Hagari, a spokesperson for the Israeli military, stated that Israel closely monitors threats emerging from Iraq and is prepared to “do whatever is necessary to deal with the situation.” The conflict, particularly in Iraq and Syria, remains underrepresented in global media, characterized by Knights as one of the “forgotten corners” of a larger ongoing conflict.