Ohio vs Toledo Prediction: Weather and Defense to Dominate MACtion Clash

The highly anticipated Week 13 MACtion game between the Ohio Bobcats and the Toledo Rockets is set to kick off on Wednesday, November 20, at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. This matchup is expected to be heavily influenced by adverse weather conditions, with rain, high gusty winds, and falling temperatures forecasted for the evening.

The weather is likely to significantly impact the passing games of both teams. Toledo, which boasts the conference’s top passing offense led by quarterback Tucker Gleason, will face challenges due to the strong winds and rain. Gleason, who has thrown for 2,032 passing yards and 19 touchdowns, will need to adapt his game to the conditions.

Ohio, on the other hand, is well-positioned to capitalize on the weather. The Bobcats have a strong rushing offense, averaging 208.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 14th in the FBS. Led by dual-threat quarterback Parker Navarro and running back Anthony Tyus III, Ohio’s ground game is expected to be the key factor in their strategy. Navarro has been particularly effective, rushing for nearly 1,400 combined yards and 16 touchdowns this season.

Defensively, both teams are stout. Ohio’s defense is the best in the MAC against the rush, allowing just 113.7 yards per game and ranking 18th nationally in rushing yards allowed. Toledo’s rushing defense is also formidable, allowing only 130 rushing yards per game and the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the MAC.

The betting lines reflect the close nature of this matchup. Toledo is a 1.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 45.5 points. However, the total has dropped significantly due to the weather conditions, indicating a potentially low-scoring game. Many analysts and models suggest taking the under, given the defensive strengths and the adverse weather.

In terms of predictions, several models and analysts lean towards Ohio covering the spread. The SportsLine Projection Model, which has a strong track record, suggests that one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time in simulations. Additionally, the College Football Network‘s Football Playoff Meter indicates that Ohio has a 49.2% chance of winning, making them slight underdogs.

Overall, this game promises to be a defensive battle with the weather playing a crucial role. The team that best adapts to the conditions and executes its ground game is likely to emerge victorious.