Tropical Development Possible Ahead of Fourth of July Weekend

PENSACOLA, Florida — The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring a weather system that could impact Fourth of July celebrations this weekend. As of 2 p.m. on July 1, forecasters noted a 30% chance of development within the next week, primarily off Florida’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

According to AccuWeather, warm waters in the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic could fuel this potential storm formation just after July 4. Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, stated, ‘A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, potentially acting as a catalyst for development.’

The National Hurricane Center communicated that the expected development window extends from July 4 into early next week. ‘An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S. or over Florida,’ they reported.

Heavy rainfall is anticipated across parts of the southeast, particularly along the west-central Florida coast, with some risks of flooding. ‘Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly in west-central Florida,’ DaSilva added.

While the system currently does not pose a direct threat to Florida in the short term, the Florida Department of Emergency Management warned residents about potential rough surf and increased rip current risks along both coasts.

In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Flossie is strengthening, with maximum sustained winds nearing 95 mph. Flossie is expected to continue strengthening and could reach near Category 2 strength within 24 hours.

National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome emphasized that advisories may be issued for systems even before they have formed into named storms, especially if development is possible near land. He said, ‘This provides residents ample time to prepare.’

Currently, conditions are favorable for potential tropical systems, with below-average wind shear and warm sea temperatures. However, factors like Saharan dust in the Atlantic may inhibit development. It’s crucial for beachgoers from Florida to the Carolinas to monitor forecasts closely over the upcoming holiday weekend.