Trump Ousts Maduro, U.S. Plans Major Investment in Venezuelan Oil

PALM BEACH, Fla. — In a shocking turn of events, President Donald Trump announced over the weekend the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, signaling a new era for the country’s struggling oil industry.

On Saturday, Trump told reporters that the United States would take control of Venezuela‘s vast oil reserves, estimated to be around 303 billion barrels, roughly 17% of the world’s total supply. He emphasized that major American oil companies would be brought in to invest billions to restore the country’s ailing oil infrastructure.

“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure,” Trump stated during a press conference held at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

This announcement comes as oil futures are set to resume trading. While the immediate impact on oil prices remains uncertain, analysts anticipate that any disruptions to Venezuela’s oil production could be overshadowed by global supply levels.

Despite an estimated production capacity of 3.5 million barrels per day at its peak, Venezuela currently produces around 800,000 barrels daily, highlighting a significant decline attributed to years of mismanagement, lack of investment, and international sanctions.

Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, commented on the significant potential Venezuela holds for oil production if infrastructure improvement occurs. “For oil, this has the potential for a historic event,” he said, referencing how past leaders like Maduro and Hugo Chavez severely impacted production.

Trump’s plans include not only revamping Venezuela’s oil infrastructure but also possibly reducing global oil prices in the long term, should production increase significantly. However, experts warn that substantial recovery will take time, with estimates ranging from five to ten years.

Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, faces daunting challenges, including pipelines that have not been updated in several decades. The cost of necessary improvements could exceed $58 billion.

Given the declining global demand and rising supply fears, current oil prices are unlikely to experience drastic fluctuations immediately. Brent crude fell by 31 cents to settle at $57.01 per barrel on the first trading day of 2026.

While some analysts predict a modest boost in prices due to geopolitical tensions, they maintain that global oversupply will limit the immediate impact of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela’s oil sector. “Prices may see modest upside on heightened geopolitical tensions,” noted Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.

As analysts await trading resumption on the oil market, the long-term forecast will depend largely on the success of the U.S. in stabilizing and rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry. The broader implications of this regime change on oil prices and production will continue to develop in the coming months.