College Football Week 9 Odds and Predictions for Friday’s Key Matchups

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Virginia — The Week 9 college football schedule kicks off Friday night with three games, including an intriguing matchup between Virginia Tech and California at 7:30 p.m. ET. California aims for bowl eligibility after a 21-18 victory over North Carolina. However, they enter as 5.5-point underdogs against the Hokies, a line that SportsLine‘s computer model closely monitors.

On the same night, the model also favors the Over (61.5) in the matchup between Charlotte and North Texas, and the Over (51.5) in Nevada versus Boise State. These games are set to start at 7 p.m. ET and 10 p.m. ET, respectively.

The computer model has been a solid predictor, simulating each FBS game 10,000 times and achieving more than $2,000 in betting profit for $100 players over the past months. Since the start of 2024, it holds a profitable 42-30 combined record on money-line and over/under bets.

Charlotte has struggled defensively, allowing over 30 points in several games this season, including 54 to South Florida earlier this month. Their defense will face a North Texas offense that recently scored 55 points against UTSA, averaging 48 in the model’s simulations for their game. The model suggests betting the Over has a 59% chance of success.

Meanwhile, California enters the contest with a 5-2 record compared to Virginia Tech’s 2-5. The Golden Bears are hoping their freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele can replicate his success from a previous game, where he threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns during his first conference road game. The model indicates that California could cover the spread 55% of the time, despite being a slight underdog.

Defensively, Nevada has been in trouble, conceding an average of 28 points per game and failing to hold opponents below 30 points on three occasions. However, Boise State has an elite offense, scoring over 40 points in five games this year, including 56 against UNLV last week. The model shows the Over hitting at a rate of 63% in this matchup.