Blues and Hawks Clash in Key Matchup

The showdown between Carlton and Hawthorn this Sunday feels like an exciting final before September rolls around. Just four points and a small percentage separate these two teams as they fight for a place in the top eight. Michael Voss‘s Carlton is working hard to hold off Sam Mitchell’s fast-improving Hawks.

If the Blues win, it could secure their spot in the finals. However, a loss might allow Hawthorn to slip into the finals mix, as they are making strides into the top eight with a string of impressive performances.

The trend for Carlton has been concerning. After winning five straight in June, including a stunning 63-point victory over Geelong, they looked ready for a premiership run. However, after leading Greater Western Sydney by 33 points in their next game, things fell apart. They managed to win just one of their next five games, leaving them clinging to a finals spot.

On the other hand, the Hawks have turned their season around dramatically. Starting at 1-6, they’ve won 10 out of their last 13. Had they begun the season in Round 8, they would have been sitting pretty near the top of the ladder. This contrast in form adds excitement heading into their pivotal clash.

Both teams excel at contested ball; Carlton ranks second in the league, while Hawthorn is close behind at fourth. The matchup will be especially crucial, as Carlton has a track record of winning when they dominate the contest, whereas Hawthorn struggles when they lose this battle.

Additionally, Hawthorn holds a significant edge in groundball differential, ranking first in the competition, while Carlton sits at seventh. This statistic could play a vital role in deciding who comes out on top.

Interestingly, Carlton and Hawthorn have very contrasting playing styles. The Blues prefer to move the ball through the corridor, while the Hawks kick along the boundary. So far, Hawthorn’s approach has been more successful, illustrated by their superior conversion rates from defensive rebounds to forward entries.

Both teams can capitalize on turnovers and win clearances, but the key difference seems to be Hawthorn’s ability to score from stoppages. Recently, they’ve converted clearances into scores much more effectively than Carlton, who are struggling to defend in these situations, which could be decisive in this afternoon’s match.

Star forward Charlie Curnow from Carlton faces a tough test against Hawthorn’s defensive duo of James Sicily and Sam Frost. After being held goalless by Collingwood last week, Curnow will be eager to bounce back and make his mark this time. The Hawks will certainly aim to keep him quiet, just like they did in previous encounters.