Exit Polls 2024: Congress Poised for Gains in Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir

The exit polls for the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, held in 2024, suggest significant gains for the Congress party, particularly in Haryana. According to projections by C-Voter, broadcast by India Today on October 5, the Congress is likely to secure between 50 to 58 seats of the total 90 seats. This potential victory in Haryana marks a substantial win over the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is projected to secure only 20 to 28 seats after a decade in power.

The C-Voter poll indicates an increase in the Congress party’s vote share to 44%, a rise of 16 percentage points from 2019, primarily at the expense of other parties like Dushyant Chautala‘s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which is expected to see a sharp fall in its vote share. The BJP’s vote share is expected to remain steady at 37%.

In the 2019 Haryana assembly elections, the BJP had claimed victory by forming a government with the JJP, securing 40 and 10 seats respectively, while the Congress managed to win only 30 seats. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda is leading as the preferred choice for chief minister, receiving 31% support in the exit polls, followed by Nayab Singh Saini and Deepender Hooda.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress-National Conference alliance is poised for a strong showing with projections suggesting they could win 40 to 48 seats out of the 90 assembly seats. The BJP is expected to capture 27 to 32 seats. Notably, Mehbooba Mufti’s People's Democratic Party (PDP) might emerge as a kingmaker with an anticipated 6 to 12 seats, should the projections hold true on counting day, scheduled for October 8.

The contests in Jammu and Kashmir were split into three phases for the election process, with voting days held on September 18, September 25, and October 1. This election carries added weight as it is the first since the bifurcation of the state following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. In Jammu, the BJP is expected to dominate, capturing between 27 and 31 seats, whereas in Kashmir, the Congress-NC alliance is leading with projections of winning 29 to 33 seats.

A variety of political parties are in the fray in both regions. In Haryana, besides the BJP and Congress, parties such as Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, and Indian National Lok Dal are contesting. In Jammu and Kashmir, the main contenders include the Congress-NC alliance, BJP, and PDP, alongside other local parties like Altaf Bukhari‘s Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party and Sajjad Gani Lone’s Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference.