Heat Aim for Victory Over Struggling Raptors Tonight

TORONTO, Ontario — The Miami Heat (25-28) visit the Toronto Raptors (17-38) on Friday, February 21, 2025, at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Scotiabank Arena, looking to build momentum after recent struggles. Miami enters the contest favored by 2.5 points, with an over/under set at 220 points.

Despite a disappointing season overall, the Heat have dominated the court against the Raptors, winning four of their last five matchups. The Raptors will seek redemption after suffering a 131-108 defeat to the Philadelphia 76ers just before the All-Star Break.

Statistics reveal that the Heat have not covered the spread in their last four games, but they maintain a solid defense, ranking third in the Eastern Conference with an average of just 110.7 points allowed per game. In contrast, Toronto ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing 116.5 points on average.

The SportsLine Projection Model has been a reliable source, successfully simulating NBA games over 10,000 times. It indicates a lean towards the ‘Under’ with a projected total of 216 points combined for Friday’s game.

Miami’s defense has benefitted from a disciplined approach that limits fouls, allowing only 14.9 free-throw attempts from their opponents, the second lowest in the league. Toronto’s offensive struggles persist as they rank 29th in three-point shooting, averaging just 11.4 made shots from beyond the arc.

“The Raptors have the second-best record against the spread in the Eastern Conference,” noted a betting expert. “But they also struggle as home underdogs, only covering in 67% of those games.”

Although Toronto’s offense doesn’t shine, players like Scottie Barnes (20.1 points per game, 7.9 rebounds) provide glimmers of hope. Miami’s Tyler Herro, the active leader in points for his team, averages 23.9 points and has demonstrated sharp increases in performance during critical moments.

Basketball analysts emphasize the importance of heavy rebounds in this matchup. The Heat average 44.1 rebounds per game but have a negative differential against their opponents who grab 45.7 boards per game. The Raptors, lacking in rebounding prowess, average just 43.8, which could play a crucial role in the game’s outcome.

Both teams are navigating injury concerns. Miami’s Kevin Love (personal reasons) and Tyler Herro (shoulder) may impact the effectiveness of their roster. The Raptors continue to deal with various injuries and absent players, including Jakob Poeltl (hip) which further complicates their game strategies.

As both teams hit the court, one question lingers—can Miami sustain their momentum against a reeling Raptors team, or will Toronto pull off an upset on their home turf? Fans will find out tonight.