Knicks Eye Third Straight Win Over Heat in Critical Matchup

NEW YORK — The New York Knicks will host the Miami Heat on Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks are favored by 7 points. This Eastern Conference showdown comes as the Knicks seek to extend their winning streak against a struggling Miami team.

The Knicks (42-24) have not only won both previous matchups this season, including a thrilling 116-112 overtime victory on March 2, but they are also riding a hot streak with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games against Miami. In contrast, the Heat (29-38) are looking to snap a seven-game losing streak, including five consecutive losses against the spread.

New York’s recent success has been bolstered by their strong home record of 21-11, while Miami has struggled with a 13-21 record on the road this season. However, the Knicks will be without star player Jalen Brunson, who is out with an ankle injury, which could impact their offensive strategy.

In the latest odds from SportsLine consensus, the over/under for total points is set at 209.5, down from an opening of 214. The Knicks are at -275 on the money line (risk $275 to win $100), while the Heat are listed at +223 (risk $100 to win $223).

The SportsLine Projection Model, which has successfully simulated NBA games over 10,000 times, indicates that the Knicks might struggle against the spread, especially as New York shows a 5-12 (29%) record when favored between 6 and 9 points this season.

The Heat, although missing their best player in Brunson, possess a robust defensive lineup. They rank seventh in the league in points allowed per game and commit the fewest fouls, leading to them allowing the second-fewest free throw attempts. This efficiency will be critical against New York’s offense, which ranks in the bottom 10 in 3-pointers made per game.

Despite the absence of a superstar, Miami’s depth includes several players capable of scoring, with seven healthy players averaging over 8.5 points per game. If Andrew Wiggins (leg) plays, Miami could field five players with double-digit scoring capability.

The Knicks rely heavily on their interior game, holding the sixth-best 2-point percentage in the league, aligning perfectly with Miami’s struggles in defense, ranking last in blocks per game. New York also excels in controlling possessions, committing the fourth-fewest turnovers in the league.

As the game approaches, fans can expect a high-stakes atmosphere at Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks historically excel. Miami’s road performance has been poor, posting a 13-21-1 record against the spread, the second-worst in the NBA.

The SportsLine model is projecting a combined total of 213 points for the matchup and favors one side of the spread, indicating potential value in betting. As the game draws near, bettors are encouraged to check the latest updates and insights from SportsLine’s team for guidance on their wagers.