Marcin Tybura vs Jhonata Diniz: UFC 309 Preview, Odds, and Predictions

Marcin Tybura and Jhonata Diniz are set to face off in a highly anticipated heavyweight undercard fight at UFC 309, taking place at Madison Square Garden in New York on Saturday, November 16, 2024. This bout serves as a significant buildup to the main event featuring Jon Jones versus Stipe Miocic.

Marcin Tybura, a seasoned fighter from Poland, enters the fight as the favorite with odds of 1.7 (-135). Tybura’s last outing was against Serghei Spivac in August 2024, where he suffered a submission loss. Despite this recent setback, Tybura’s experience and ground game make him a formidable opponent[2][5].

Jhonata Diniz, an undefeated rising star from Brazil, stands as the underdog with odds of 2.2 (+123). Diniz secured a unanimous decision victory over Karl Williams on the same date as Tybura’s last fight and boasts seven knockouts in his eight wins. His superior striking and movement are expected to be key factors in this matchup. Diniz was recently pulled from a fight against Derrick Lewis and is now facing Tybura, who is seen as a more dangerous opponent[2][5].

The betting odds suggest that Tybura is the more likely victor, but Diniz’s potent striking and kickboxing prowess could keep Tybura at bay. If Diniz can avoid being taken to the ground, his chances of winning increase significantly. The methodical pace of both fighters indicates that the fight is likely to go over 1.5 rounds[2][5].

Live coverage for the Marcin Tybura vs Jhonata Diniz fight will start at 06:00 PM EST on ESPN+, with the ring walks expected around 07:00 PM EST. Fans can watch the event via ESPN+ or use a VPN if streaming services are restricted in their region[2].