Matteo Berrettini Faces Marcos Giron in ATP Madrid Showdown

Madrid, Spain — Matteo Berrettini will take on Marcos Giron in the second round of the ATP Madrid Open on Saturday, April 26, 2025. The match is set to begin at 11:05 AM ET at the Caja Magica.

According to the latest simulation results from Dimers’ advanced tennis model, Berrettini is favored to win, with a 74% probability of victory against Giron.

Greg Butyn, a data analyst at Dimers, shared insights on the matchup, stating, “We have run 10,000 simulations and integrated recent data which indicates Berrettini has a clear edge going into this match. Marcos Giron’s chances are considerably lower.” The model also predicts Berrettini has a 70% chance of winning the first set.

Berrettini enters the matchup after a strong showing in 2025, including a solid performance on clay, where he won 11 of his 19 matches this season. He received a bye in the first round at Madrid and aims to return to form, having previously reached the finals at this tournament in 2021.

Meanwhile, Giron, currently ranked 45th in the world, has a record of 11 wins and eight losses this season. He progressed to the second round by edging out Learner Tien in a closely contested match that lasted over two hours.

Interestingly, Giron leads their head-to-head record 2-0, having previously defeated Berrettini at the Halle Open in 2024 and the Paris Masters in 2020. However, analyst predictions favor Berrettini, who has been noted for his powerful serve and aggressive playstyle.

Bettors should note the current odds for the match: Giron is a +350 underdog on the moneyline, while Berrettini is favored at -500. The best odds for the first set show Giron at +250 and Berrettini at -333.

For further details on betting tips and predictions, bettors can visit the interactive predictions page on Dimers. As the ATP Madrid Open unfolds, anticipation grows around this compelling matchup between two skilled players.