Medvedev Favored Over Auger-Aliassime at ATP Doha Quarterfinals

DOHA, Qatar — Daniil Medvedev is set to face Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals of the ATP Doha tournament on Thursday, February 20, 2025, where current simulations predict Medvedev as the likely winner.

Dimers’ data analyst Greg Butyn shared insights from simulations that forecast a 61% chance of victory for World No. 6 Medvedev against the 24-year-old Canadian, who holds a ranking of 23. The match is scheduled to begin at 8:20 AM ET at the Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex.

“Using the latest data, we simulated Thursday’s Auger-Aliassime-Medvedev match 10,000 times,” Butyn stated. “Taking into account recent updates and different inputs, we have assessed Medvedev’s strong probability of winning.”

Both players enter the match with contrasting seasons. Medvedev’s 2025 record stands at 4-3, following disappointing exits in previous tournaments, notably a second-round loss at the Australian Open. In contrast, Auger-Aliassime has enjoyed success this year, securing two ATP titles after a strong showing at the Adelaide International and the Open Occitanie.

Historically, Medvedev leads their head-to-head encounters 7-1. Their last meeting occurred at the Paris Olympics, where Auger-Aliassime emerged victorious on clay. This will be their second match this year, with Medvedev prevailing in the Doha semifinal last year.

Current betting odds reflect Medvedev as a favorite, listed at -227 on the moneyline, compared to Auger-Aliassime’s +175. The odds for the first set are similarly favoring Medvedev at -189 over Auger-Aliassime’s +150. These odds, however, are subject to change as the match approaches.

Medvedev is looking to reclaim former glories after a strong 2023 season in which he secured the Qatar Open title. As noted, he boasts a historically good performance on hard courts, winning 90% of his 20 ATP titles on this surface. He has not won a hard court title since the Miami Open in 2023 and is therefore motivated to break this drought.

Conversely, Auger-Aliassime aims to continue his impressive form, having capitalized on his early-season success. With a current win-loss record of 11-3 for 2025 — including a respectable 7-2 on hard courts — he poses a significant challenge for Medvedev.

This quarterfinal clash not only showcases two of tennis’s current talents but also highlights the growing interest in sports betting surrounding ATP events. For more betting insights, including best bets and detailed analysis, fans can dive into Dimers’ interactive prediction tools.

For those considering betting on this match, it is crucial to gamble responsibly. Resources are available for individuals needing support, including the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.