Naomi Osaka to Face Paula Badosa in WTA Italian Open

ROME, Italy — Naomi Osaka is set to face Paula Badosa in the second round of the 2025 WTA Italian Open tournament on Thursday. The match is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).

According to advanced simulations by Stats Insider, Osaka has a 64% chance of winning against Badosa. The tool has run the match scenario 10,000 times, producing betting odds that reflect the players’ chances. Currently, TAB lists Osaka at $1.44 and Badosa at $2.75 for the match.

Stats Insider also offers detailed analysis on first-set odds, with Osaka’s chances at $1.50 and Badosa at $2.62. Although the predictive analytics favor Osaka, the model suggests betting on Badosa due to a slight edge found in the current odds.

Badosa, who has been dealing with a persistent back injury, withdrew from her match against Osaka, which significantly impacts the tournament’s schedule. This injury has affected her performance since March, and she confirmed in a recent interview that she has returned to receiving treatment.

Naomi Osaka recently returned to competitive play after taking part in a WTA 125K event in Saint-Malo, where she won her first title since becoming a mother. She discussed the importance of enjoying the game rather than focusing solely on her performance on major courts.

In her latest comments, Osaka shared her approach to competition and her desire to find joy in the sport. “I just want to see what I can do,” she said, reflecting on her journey and recovery from previous disappointments.

As the tournament progresses, Stats Insider continues to provide betting insights and expert predictions, aiding fans and bettors in making informed decisions.