Nathaniel Lowe’s Struggles Highlight Shift from Power Hitter to Contact Dilemma

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Nathaniel Lowe, once one of the most dangerous hitters against fastballs in Major League Baseball, faces significant challenges in the current season. In 2024, his metrics showcased a .410 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a +10 run value against fastballs, ranking him among the elite. However, midway through 2025, those numbers have plummeted, now sitting at a .297 wOBA and -5 run value, among the lowest in the league.

Despite showing improvement in hitting harder, with a 46.6% hard-hit percentage compared to 38.8% last year, Lowe is missing more pitches than before. He has recorded a 26.1% swing-and-miss rate against fastballs, a steep rise from 20.3% in 2024, leading to an increase in strikeouts.

The 2025 season began with a strategic shift from the Washington Nationals coaching staff, aimed at transforming Lowe into a true slugger. This change was vital for an offense that finished last in home runs during the previous year. Lowe successfully hit a total of 33 home runs over 2023 and 2024 but struggled to replicate his 27 home run season from 2022.

During an introductory news conference, Lowe expressed his determination to regain his power without sacrificing his plate discipline. To this end, the Nationals advised him to swing more often and focus on hitting fly balls. While these adjustments seem logical, they have not resulted in improved performance. Lowe’s average exit velocity has decreased from the 73rd percentile in 2022 to the 44th percentile in 2025.

Another challenge for Lowe this season is his declining bat speed. He recorded an 80th percentile rating in 2023, but that has dropped to 63rd percentile this year, making it increasingly difficult for him to catch up to fastballs. With an altered batting approach that has led to more swings and misses, he finds himself at a disadvantage against the very pitches that once defined his success.

Although the Nationals staff has maintained patience with Lowe, the consensus is emerging that his transition into a home run hitter may not be feasible. His declining bat speed and exit velocity, combined with a sharp rise in strikeouts, raise concerns about his ability to profitably adjust his game without refocusing on contact hitting.

The hope is for Lowe to return to his strengths—exhibiting patience at the plate, drawing walks, and making solid contact across the field—rather than pursuing power at the cost of his overall production. Time remains for adjustments to be made this season, but if they do not succeed, Lowe may soon face trade or non-tender decisions from the Nationals.