NCAA Tournament Projections Shift Ahead of Selection Sunday

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — As conference play heats up in college basketball, the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee has provided its early projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, leaving fans and analysts buzzing. The top 16 seeds were announced on February 15, with Auburn, Alabama, Duke, and Florida securing the coveted No. 1 spots.

Determining seeding isn’t straightforward this year; several teams are experiencing drastic changes week by week. For instance, despite West Virginia‘s strong performance against Kansas State, resulting in a solidified No. 5 seed, the Wildcats slipped to No. 4, raising alarms about their chances of hosting first- and second-round games.

While Kansas State’s NET rating typically suggests a favorable outcome, the committee’s recent decisions have shown it won’t be the sole factor influencing seeding. With a crucial matchup against Baylor approaching, the Wildcats will need a victory to maintain hosting prospects. Key to this potential success is the anticipated return of star center Ayoka Lee, who has been sidelined with a foot injury.

The emergence of Alabama remains noteworthy, as a recent loss to Missouri has opened the door for Tennessee and Houston to claim a top seed. Notably, the NCAA’s selection committee employs an analytic algorithm that evaluates team performance across various quadrants to build the tournament bracket. This framework informs the Bracketology projections released by analysts like Charlie Creme, which are updated frequently during the season.

The latest projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament highlight significant shifts among teams vying for favorable seeds:

• Projected 1-line: Auburn, Florida, Duke, Tennessee
• Last four byes: Ohio State, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Georgia
• Last four in: SDSU, Wake Forest, Nebraska, Oklahoma
• First four out: VCU, SMU, Arkansas, North Carolina

Auburn remains the top overall seed, currently boasting a remarkable 22-2 record and solidifying its position with depth across its lineup. Key players include forward Johni Broome, who averages 18.1 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, Florida’s success continues to impress, temporarily placing them ahead of Duke with a strong conference record including victories over higher-ranked teams.

Duke, however, is not to be overlooked, having won 17 of its past 18 contests, bolstered by standout performances from freshman Cooper Flagg. The Blue Devils are poised to maintain their ranks with significant wins against premier opponents this season.

The Big Ten, known for its competitiveness, is projected to secure up to ten spots in the tournament, with teams like Michigan and Wisconsin climbing up the seeding hierarchy following recent victories against Quad 1 opponents. Conversely, Illinois faces mounting pressure due to inconsistent performance, needing to stabilize as conference play edges toward conclusion.

With Selection Sunday set for March 16, the landscape of the NCAA tournament bracket is still in flux, making every game in the upcoming week critical for teams looking to enhance their tournament prospects. College basketball enthusiasts are eagerly anticipating how the remainder of the regular season will shake out, with numerous storylines yet to unfold.