NOAA’s NHC Sets New Standards for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
MIAMI – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) has announced a major upgrade to its potential tropical cyclone (PTC) advisories, expanding their forecasting capabilities by an additional 24 hours. This change, set for implementation in 2025, aims to enhance public preparedness ahead of tropical weather events.
Dr. Michael Brennan, director of the NHC, explained the significance of these adjustments during an interview with FOX Weather. The new rules will allow meteorologists to provide a full 72 hours of advance notice for disturbances that may develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. This proactive approach is expected to significantly benefit communities in the projected path of such systems.
“Since we first introduced potential tropical cyclone advisories in 2017, we’ve seen their effectiveness firsthand,” Brennan said. “A prime example is Tropical Storm Helene, which formed in the Caribbean and made landfall in Florida shortly after. These advisories allow us to issue watches and warnings even before a system becomes a depression or storm.”
This change comes as part of the NHC’s ongoing effort to improve forecasting accuracy. In 2024, the agency successfully predicted a major hurricane developing in the Caribbean just days before its impact on Florida.
“We’ve gotten significantly better at anticipating rapid intensification,” Brennan stated, noting that forecasting errors for rapid strengthening of storms have been reduced by nearly half in recent years. “Even when a system is still classified as a disturbance, we can often predict when it may rapidly intensify.”
Despite these advancements, there remains confusion surrounding the terminology used by the NHC. The term ‘potential tropical cyclone’ can mislead some into thinking a system has formally formed, leading to misunderstandings about the current state of a disturbance.
Bryan Norcross, a veteran meteorologist, expressed his concerns about the PTC terminology. “I prefer the term ‘potential tropical threat,’ as it better describes what we are trying to communicate. The goal is to raise awareness much sooner,” he said.
As hurricane season approaches, the NHC continues to emphasize the need for public vigilance and awareness of the broader impacts that can extend beyond the storm’s center, including heavy rainfall, storm surge, and damaging winds.
“As risk communicators, we need to adapt our communication strategies,” NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome told FOX Weather. “We should focus on a hazard-first approach.”
The upcoming 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was marked by 18 named storms, including five hurricanes, a record that highlights the ongoing challenge of accurate forecasting. The NHC reports that their track forecasts in 2024 were the best recorded in years, with improved accuracy in predicting the paths of storms.
Stakeholders are urged to start preparing for the rapid approach of hurricane season, as the NHC gears up for another challenging year.
