Osaka Favored in Upcoming Match Against Bronzetti at Madrid Open

MADRID, Spain — Naomi Osaka is set to face Lucia Bronzetti in the first round of the WTA Madrid Open on Tuesday, April 22, at 6:25 AM ET. After an extensive analysis incorporating data from 10,000 simulations, sports betting platform Dimers predicts a high likelihood of victory for Osaka, estimating her win probability at 73% compared to 27% for Bronzetti.

“Our simulation model has thoroughly analyzed recent player performance, and the results are clear—Osaka is in the favored position going into this match,” said Greg Butyn, a data analyst at Dimers.

Osaka’s recent performance shows a 9-4 record in 2025, with her best result being a finalist finish at the ASB Classic in Auckland earlier this year. She has faced difficulties recently, however, not advancing past the fourth round in Miami last month. This match marks her first on clay this season.

In contrast, Bronzetti struggles with a current season record of 9-11 and has not secured a win on clay, losing her last outing against Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah in Rouen. Bronzetti’s best finish came earlier this season at the Transylvania Open, where she reached the finals.

The two players have met twice before, with Osaka leading their head-to-head record 2-0. Their most recent encounter was at the 2024 French Open, resulting in a win for Osaka in a tightly contested match.

Betting odds show Osaka as a clear favorite, with a moneyline set at -250, while Bronzetti stands at +200. Additionally, Osaka has a 68% probability of winning the first set, according to Dimers’ predictive model.

The match will occur at the prestigious Park Manzanares venue, known for hosting top-tier tennis events. As enthusiasm grows for the tournament, many sports fans are eager to witness the match between the two talented players.

For gambling enthusiasts looking to seize the betting opportunity, current odds are as follows: Moneyline for Osaka is -250, while for Bronzetti it’s +200 with the first set listed at -200 for Osaka and +162 for Bronzetti. All bets must be placed responsibly, and users are reminded to abide by local gambling regulations.

As the tournament progresses, the winner of this matchup will advance to face Madison Keys in the next round, setting a competitive tone for the rest of the Madrid Open tournament.