Pegula Favored Over Danilovic in Australian Open Showdown

MELBOURNE, Australia — Jessica Pegula and Olga Danilovic are set to clash in the third round of the Australian Open 2025 on Friday, with Pegula emerging as the heavy favorite according to advanced predictive models.

The match, scheduled to begin at 4:40 a.m. ET, pits the experienced American against the rising Serbian star. Dimers, a leading sports analytics platform, predicts Pegula has an 82% chance of victory, while Danilovic trails with an 18% win probability. “We simulated Friday’s Danilovic-Pegula match 10,000 times,” said Greg Butyn, a data analyst at Dimers. “Our model, which incorporates the latest data and thousands of inputs, strongly favors Pegula.”

Pegula, a three-time Australian Open quarterfinalist, enters the match with momentum from a strong start to the season. She reached the final of the Adelaide International earlier this month and has yet to drop a set in Melbourne. Her recent victories include a dominant 6-3, 6-0 win over Maya Joint and a 6-4, 6-2 triumph against Elise Mertens.

Danilovic, meanwhile, has shown resilience after a shaky start to 2025. Following a first-round exit at the Hobart International, she rebounded with impressive performances at the Australian Open, including a commanding 6-1, 6-2 victory over World No. 21 Liudmila Samsonova in the second round.

This will be the first professional meeting between the two players, though they faced off once before at the ITF USA 02A tournament in 2018, where Pegula won in straight sets. Pegula’s experience and tactical acumen are expected to be key factors, while Danilovic’s aggressive style and powerful forehand could pose challenges.

Betting odds reflect the model’s predictions, with Pegula listed at -500 on the moneyline and -333 to win the first set. Danilovic, the underdog, stands at +350 on the moneyline and +250 to take the opening set.

For fans looking to delve deeper into the matchup, Dimers offers detailed predictions, best bets, and an interactive analysis of the simulated outcomes. The platform’s advanced machine learning algorithms have become a trusted resource for tennis enthusiasts and bettors alike.